https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts daily 0.75 2024-10-07 https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/learn-to-trade-here-is-a-shortcut monthly 0.5 2024-10-08 https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/bitcoin-smart-money-strategies-btc-smc-mechanical-edge monthly 0.5 2024-10-01 https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/why-you-fail-at-trading monthly 0.5 2024-09-25 https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/how-to-start-as-a-trader-and-have-a-good-chance-of-making-it monthly 0.5 2024-09-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/eef38ddd-3341-45a3-b7d0-8ab61871aee8/Screenshot+2024-09-24+102630.png Blog posts - How to start as a trader, and have a good chance of making it. - Make it stand out I have written on this subject before, see my signature. There is more though. If you are starting out, there is a LOT you need to know. I will start with some basics. Some of them you may scoff at, and say I am wrong, but I can assure you I am not. Truly. Read my previous post here: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b2bca91f-714e-4c1e-b9f5-0659ca81ef9c/Screenshot+2024-09-24+102851.png Blog posts - How to start as a trader, and have a good chance of making it. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/dont-imagine-that-learning-trading-will-only-take-a-few-weeks monthly 0.5 2024-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9af86ff1-edd2-4e47-a90d-f166b706e12f/Screenshot+2024-09-03+114347.png Blog posts - Don't imagine that learning trading will only take a few weeks. - Make it stand out I've been trading since 1987, on and off. You need to be realistic about the time it takes to become profitable. You wouldn't expect to learn a skill in a few weeks of evening classes, so don't expect to become profitable in the same timeframe. Expect a year of study. Good for you if you crack it before then, but be wary of hubris. The market is set up to have many pitfalls for you, and you can make one mistake and be back to square -5 before you can say "WTF happened". If you can make 3-4% 3 months in a row then maybe you know enough to up the size you trade. While you are waiting, try these hints: 1. Don't quit your day job because you had a big win. You have no idea how easy it is to lose what you just made. 2. It's a "learning on the job" process. No matter how much you read or how many YouTube videos you watch, when your money is on the table and your position is going against you, you find out what trading is like. Some say (and I agree) that you aren't really qualified until you have learned your lesson with a stonking loss. 3. Demo accounts teach you nothing. Start small. Or use a prop firm. That way you get the true experience. 4. Protect your capital. Use a stop loss set at the price where you know your initial feel for the market was just wrong. If you think you don't need a stop loss because you are there watching it, then just wait for your first unexpected gap move to learn that one. Have a backstop, at least. People have a habit of running losses, don't be like them. Have the discipline. 5. Don't risk too much on each trade. Great traders can get 10 losses in a row. They know it's part of the game, but that's why they don't put 10% of the account on each trade.... Examples of pitfalls: 1. Spread hours in FX, where you get stopped out 20 pips away from the real market. (50 sometimes) 2. Trading halts in stocks. 3. Unexpected assignment in options. 4. Holding a position over the weekend and a war breaks out. Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/smart-money-and-the-why-behind-it monthly 0.5 2024-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a749c22d-48db-459d-9f9f-4b0a22be36c8/Screenshot+2024-09-03+093123.png Blog posts - Smart Money and the why behind it - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/zoom-out-in-bitcoin-its-not-exponential-any-longer monthly 0.5 2024-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/73de87d1-72ba-47ef-96b8-c0ff3ab928dd/Screenshot+2024-09-02+103452.png Blog posts - Zoom out in Bitcoin. It's not exponential any longer. - Make it stand out It's all in the picture. Rallies like this need to be driven by the banks and HFs. They didn't accumulate enough before Retail took the price away from them. The banks and HFs have sold it all the way up from 30. They don't lose very often. It's usually best to be aligned the same way as they are. "Buy the Dip?" Bay as well say "Baaaaa" like a sheep. That is all. Further justification for this view is available in my recent posts and ideas. I'm also pretty active. See signature. Long story short: This stuff is no longer exponential. Stop thinking it's going to 250k. That will take a decade. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/look-for-wyckoff-in-the-right-places monthly 0.5 2024-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d6af72cf-08c9-4f8c-ac8f-fc7cf9c42bc6/Screenshot+2024-09-02+102941.png Blog posts - Look for Wyckoff in the right places. - Make it stand out Take this accumulation from Summer 2021. It only proved it was accumulation when it exited the ranger to the upside. You had to wait for the retest to get a sensible trade. Even then, the overall risk reward was at best mediocre, and no one in the crypto space had the patience to wait almost 7 weeks for it, instead getting rinsed at 50k and likely stopped out. And also remember the narrative was around the Elliott Wave that we'd outlined, because you can't just rely on Wyckoff, or any one thing, if you want a sensible trading strategy. Right now, for a number of sensible logical reasons outlined in the attached posts and videos, I am looking for Wyckoff Distribution. My bias is downward. If you want to know why, look at the other posts, I'm not re-hashing it all again here. The important thing is the pattern I expect to see, involving a significant break of the consolidation structure to the downside and then a retest of the zone. Hmmm.... I spoke in earlier posts about there being a chance of a final upthrust above the ATH, just to sucker the last few in. I think he chances of this are reduced to about 5-10% now, given recent price action. The middle of the consolidation (66K) seems like the top for now. If it retests and fails, then it may be time to pull the trigger. Please bear in mind that BTC is now a mature instrument, and the days of exponential prices are gone. Good luck, because it's better to be lucky than good, most of the time! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7ad97363-c783-4226-9a78-f124856e54dc/Screenshot+2024-09-02+102839.png Blog posts - Look for Wyckoff in the right places. - Make it stand out Since my partner Mayfair_Ventures started talking bearish about BTC in March 2021, and also talking about Wyckoff theory, a lot of commentators picked up on it and made Wyckoff more widely known. Most likely they read up on it quickly and got some kind of understanding, but unless you have been using it for a while in anger, as in, making real trading decisions based on it, it's not that easy to use. There is ALWAYS a bigger picture to look at. Also, you rarely get a perfect Wyckoff. One person's spring is another's confirmation that this is a distribution. Like all trading, there is a combination of signs. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/btc-update-buy-the-dip-is-this-the-last-chance monthly 0.5 2024-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3790c8cf-fac3-4381-b50a-92662cc9e40f/Screenshot+2024-09-02+102617.png Blog posts - BTC Update, buy the dip? Is this the last chance? - Make it stand out Click the image to watch the video No. Don't touch it. See previous video ideas and normal ideas https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/btc-behaves-normally-for-once monthly 0.5 2024-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/753a56b8-af67-4c05-b06d-0d1971f132c4/Screenshot+2024-09-02+102410.png Blog posts - BTC behaves normally for once - Make it stand out Click the image for the video. Follow up to yesterday's post looking for a change of character (CHOCH) on the shorter timescales, having seen one on the Daily TF. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/btc-update-first-time-short-watch-to-see-why monthly 0.5 2024-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4e6a0cd7-df83-4ed8-9354-cdf3a0fa27b8/Screenshot+2024-09-02+102221.png Blog posts - BTC Update, first time short? Watch to see why.. - Make it stand out Click the image for the video This is an update to my earlier piece from earlier this month, where I was saying I had detected a bearish outlook. PLEASE don't just sell it, look at the reasoning, and remember to wait for the Change of Character (CHOCH). It's not here yet. Wisdom: Always wait for confirmation. be happy to miss trades that do not offer confirmation. yes, you can just sell levels, but it's better to be more discerning. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/latest-btc-view-buying-the-dip-is-dumb-so-dont-use-logic monthly 0.5 2024-09-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/8659d8cd-623e-424b-ba30-e6c106b8f868/Screenshot+2024-09-02+101909.png Blog posts - Latest BTC view. Buying the dip is dumb, so don't. Use logic. - Make it stand out Click the image for the video. Nothing really changed except what we have been saying is happening. Don't buy the dip. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/new-volume-footprint-option-on-tradingview monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/83a39dc3-e464-43f8-a48f-f6a506efce0b/Screenshot+2024-08-13+084324.png Blog posts - New Volume Footprint option on TradingView - Make it stand out Hi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/how-or-why-did-you-start-trading monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/67c3d619-2a26-46b0-8bf8-e17f35dd2b14/Screenshot+2024-08-13+083612.png Blog posts - How or why did you start trading? - Make it stand out I think you need this as a trader, I have written several articles here on Tradingview about the psychology and loneliness of being a trader. Two of my favourites are the Simpsons one and the other side of the trade. Doing things you wouldn't usually do is part of creating your inner trader. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fc973e90-0bc1-4c87-a872-86796271b006/Screenshot+2024-08-13+083539.png Blog posts - How or why did you start trading? - Make it stand out I've spent nearly 10 years on Tradingview. But after doing this since the age of 15; it's been interesting and fun (don't worry, this is not me retiring) I just wanted to share some of the key points, the ups and the downs, the challenges and the rewards. For those of you who don't follow or know me, my trading started after a school trip from Wales (in the UK) to New York's Wall Street. We went to learn about the Wall Street crash and visited the exchange. Needless to say I was hooked! My early years of trading, I would take the pushbike to the bank and trade stocks from the Times newspaper, it was always over the phone via the bank broker, I had to do this via my mother as I wasn't old enough for a stock account through my bank. These were large cap stocks, things like Vodaphone, Cadbury's and ones most people could identify with. These were never big trades just the experience I guess. How I funded this was, I dropped out of school not long after that trip to New York, no qualifications, just the idea of being a trader and taking over my father's engineering company. I would work as an engineer, still live with my parents, and buy stocks. It wasn't until a few years later I got into penny stocks. I guess for me - seeing the Wolf of Wall Street movie, it was a bit like that: you would buy stocks for fractions of a penny and watch them pump. Some traded better than others but still had very little knowledge; trading wasn't as accessible as it is today. I guess looking back this was very similar to what I see in crypto today, especially with alt coins. about 5 years into the journey, I ended up getting into Forex where I guess I have stayed ever since. This was fast-paced compared to stocks and the markets being open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. I would take long term trades such as the difference between the interest rate of the New Zealand Dollar vs the Great British Pound for example. It just felt like free money. (those were the days). From there I also started trading Gold, Oil & SPX. Running in parallel, I ended up in the tech space; investing in cyber security around financial markets. I keep little souvenirs of the journey like this card from buying my first Ferrari. It reminds me of why it was interesting in the first place! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/81287f86-3dba-4dfa-a773-fa55a0c27875/Screenshot+2024-08-13+083733.png Blog posts - How or why did you start trading? - Make it stand out I was fortunate enough to get into Bitcoin early doors, right place, right time as they say. From 2012 onwards been educating, mentoring and advising people and what a journey that's been. I have met some great people along the way. This brings me back to the upside, downside and, of course, the psychology and emotions of trading. Trading can be a very lonely place to be if you have nobody to share the wins with in real-time; it's hard when you manage losses and keep them to yourself. Of course it's very, very rewarding when all is going to plan! I can't emphasise the importance of a community, it's actually one of the reasons for posting this post. With access to charts and brokers directly on your phone, it's an incredible change from the time I first started. But it can also bring a lot of hidden dangers, it's a unique type of lifestyle. I understand not everyone trades for a living, it's a hobby or a way to earn some extra money. But the ups and downs of this can have a strain on mental health. Fear and greed is a real thing, not just a sentiment indicator. We are human after all. It's so easy to fall into a false sense of security after a couple of nice wins. But it's even easier to go off the rails after a handful of losses. Some really cool factors for me when it comes to trading, would have to include doing one of the Tradingview shows with Stefan back last year tradingview.com/streams/WDxxroSNgb/ and discussed the fact that a notebook I had made for my 11 year son had been published as a book. Never thought I would become an author after dropping out of school. Part of the reason I stream here and write educational posts is I love to keep the trading game live and current. Watching Bitcoin unfold and become institutional has been such a pleasure and amazing to watch it transition. It's been a great way to interact with people from all around the world. I guess the point is, the power of the internet and a platform like Tradingview; allows us to share such stories with the world. What I have learnt, is that new traders come to the market with a certain expectation. Often, people assume they need more indicators, more screens, more news and more instruments. What you realise over time, is you can make a living from a handful of instruments and a little bit of logic. I'll kick it off by saying what I don't like about trading is how lonely and isolated it can be. What I do like about it is the freedom it brings. I would love to hear your story, why you started trading, what you like or don't like about it and anything you feel like sharing! Anyways; I just wanted to share this little post and get some discussions going. Have a great weekend and I'll see you on the next stream. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9fa46e08-22c9-41bb-9275-05b054b3b170/Screenshot+2024-08-13+083645.png Blog posts - How or why did you start trading? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/bitcoin-realism monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/660fc33b-2245-4db5-8bd8-76d4368def42/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080330.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit 500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/eb200a66-a6d2-46b5-971e-a52a8776700f/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080357.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, 100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a83afa88-4289-4aa2-9606-320d165d60be/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080509.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about 10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/492ce28e-c0f5-4437-8884-074867aa9340/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080618.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a4fd10f5-e738-4edb-aa86-38b19dfb9851/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080730.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around 37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at 37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of 37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/27182ef9-d575-4b37-a120-4b715d24587a/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080544.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/17cc2ecc-ee5e-4e89-8ec4-3bda6e62372d/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080706.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still 25K+ under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/166c744a-a5c8-4248-b1d3-9181b7d7af37/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080446.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a42b0363-3b15-4853-8973-192dac8d29bc/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080643.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out Well, I guess the second move played out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/08785b5b-6e86-473d-bed2-5300c3fd4da3/Screenshot+2024-08-13+080422.png Blog posts - Bitcoin REALISM - Make it stand out Here's the actual chart. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/live-stream-the-whole-market monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e4af48b0-bfe3-44c6-b088-514903df3371/Screenshot+2024-08-13+075841.png Blog posts - Live stream - The whole Market - Make it stand out Forex market update. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/live-stream-the-missing-part monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dbac6d70-4609-400e-88ce-61cc0f08f7e9/Screenshot+2024-08-13+075647.png Blog posts - Live stream - The missing part - Make it stand out What's missing?! https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/people-want-to-earn-but-not-learn monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d6035fa2-82d3-4099-afad-0f9779eee2e6/Screenshot+2024-08-13+075324.png Blog posts - People want to earn but not learn - Make it stand out Spend the time to look at things such as "repainting" this means that when your strategy triggers an entry, does it disappear and reappear. If so, do some manual back testing. Then Dig deeper and analyse the type of market condition it was more profitable or less profitable. This could be things like "I lose more on a Monday, compared to other days" or when the market goes sideways, It triggers too many trades. Think of trading like you would a university course, there's plenty to learn but you can have some fun along the way! Stay safe! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d4d5c816-a9ce-475d-9d71-0488a1be3e4d/Screenshot+2024-08-13+075250.png Blog posts - People want to earn but not learn - Make it stand out Imagine winning 20% of your trading days and still being at breakeven... simple 1:4 ratio. This is only one small aspect to keep in mind. As I mentioned above, if strategies or software is pitched with high percentage win rates - run. You need to understand the market acts differently and past results do not indicate future performance. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, remember. You do not need to go looking for the silver bullet. These strategies do not exist, instead spend the time working on strategies that can be consistent in various market conditions. This is no small task, your strategy might identify entries in a counter trend differently than it would in say a ranging market. The answer to resolve this, is BACKTESTING Don't just run your strategy on replay mode, although TradingView has a great little tool for this. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ded94248-8d16-48d5-b321-269eac295edc/Screenshot+2024-08-13+075138.png Blog posts - People want to earn but not learn - Make it stand out The issue is everyone wants to make money (well, maybe not everyone) but nobody wants to take the time to learn how to do it properly. This is NOT a sales pitch by the way! it's FACT!! People often ask why I bash influencers so much, it's mainly for this reason. Majority of noobs, come into trading expecting to make a fortune. If only it was that easy, every man and his dog would be a professional trader. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fddc8d8d-3e89-4e0f-a8f4-3d149aafbd27/Screenshot+2024-08-13+075217.png Blog posts - People want to earn but not learn - Make it stand out Over the years, I have talked about things like Bots and AI that are programmed to make you money - think logically, if again it is this easy wouldn't the founders go to the bank, loan 10million based on their results and just not bother selling and shilling to customers and retail. NOBODY wants to provide customer service, especially to the world's population. Unfortunately, regardless of the market. Trust me if you stick around long enough you get to see this behaviour in Forex, Commodities, Stocks and more recently crypto with a splash of A.I. The story goes pretty much the same way. "man (or woman) hears about an opportunity to make money through a thing called trading, they do their research which leads to the old You of Tube and that leads to "Lamborghini promises from kids with fake watches, drawing random trendlines on 3 minute charts" There's often a "sign-up" bonus if you click their shill link. So let's get this straight, they make money on watch time and those links you click. The reason I chose fish in the image above, is that most people have memories that last about 2 seconds. Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market" Algorithms work and influencers claim to be experts with 3 months of experience. Easy to show in a market only going one way. Trading is hard enough, let alone having the ability to lose money from scams. If a trading algorithms promises a 90% win rate - run and don't buy it. ============================================================== There are fundamental things to do and you can deploy to get you off on the right track. Firstly think of the obvious. 90% of new traders lose 90% of their money in only 90 days. Hence a 50% sign-up bonus whereby you think you gained "free cash" often has small print that you can't access it until you lost your original investment. Affiliates tend to get 25% or more of the deposit - the exchanges know full well, your about to lose your money. Second thing I try to emphasis for newer traders, is that you need to treat trading as a profession. You wouldn't watch a video and expect to be a doctor, you also wouldn't buy an algorithm or Artificial Intelligence software and expect to become New York's latest Hot Shot Lawyer You see where this is going? There is no secret sauce, no silver bullet and no short cuts. If you want to trade and make money trading, you need the basics. You need to keep doing the basics well and evolve your mindset more than a strategy. Areas that will really help you include proper risk management. If your willing to be sat in negative 20, 30 or even 50% equity positions. This won't take you long to lose your entire trading pot. Instead risking 1-2% with a risk strategy of 2 -1 or greater. it's a slower game, but it keeps you playing the game. If you take a 3 or even a 4 reward trade with only 1 risk. For every time you are right, it's giving you 4 times as much as when you are wrong. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/crash-coming-soon monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2e66963a-b256-41e6-b674-31dc89a91bbe/Screenshot+2024-07-30+103713.png Blog posts - Crash coming soon - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/eb1f2470-191c-4d88-8f7d-927a968d0a50/Screenshot+2024-07-30+103729.png Blog posts - Crash coming soon - Make it stand out I wrote this 18 months ago. I still stand by every word. TLDR: April 2022.. Recession fears, interest rate hikes, high inflation In the first phase of a recession, the market falls due to fear because "everyone knows a recession is coming" In the second phase, companies report excellent profits because "duh it's inflation that's why we raise our prices" when actually they are price gouging swine. Excellent profits = market rises, which traders don't understand because "Wait this is a recession? I seem to be short and caught". Third phase.. No one has any savings left, thanks to the price gouging. Rents and heating bills and food prices are sky-high. The proles can only afford the basics. Companies will only report their drops in profits 3 months later. At first it's just a few poor reports, then a flood. They don't have sufficient reserves because they had pressure to pay fat dividends to the greedy funds that own them, so they start to fail. This happens just as all the shorts in stocks cut their losses and buy it back and those who missed out on the "fools rally" crack and buy in at the top. Fourth phase: Crash. We may get a new ATH or a double top beforehand, but you heard the truth here first. Look at the Commitments of Traders indicator at the bottom.. Big boys selling off. We give this away free. See website. Sep 12, 2023 Comment: The CoT tool in this example has a bug in it that removes the CoT data from my argument in the piece. The CoT data shown is for DXY, which is the default when TV cannot find the right CoT for the symbol. This has been fixed. Remove and re-add the indicator to get the update. This does NOT change my view: We are up first to go down.... A LOT! The CoT still agrees with the argument but not as strongly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2da8e277-bdd0-458d-9cb6-e0959e744e70/Screenshot+2024-07-30+103953.png Blog posts - Crash coming soon - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/level-up-your-understanding monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bd235001-adbc-4e98-868f-c5066e6d1758/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055416.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out So what you need to understand is that with lack of impulsiveness and clear divergence, what else can you see that backs up the logic? How about using Oscillators? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2d3f4f1c-a110-4636-bd1b-5b5fbc39e3de/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055508.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out If you can learn to read these simple points, your already onto a winner. Many newer traders have strategies that often include RSI, MACD or Moving Averages and 9 times out of 10 it's on too small a timeframe. "If in doubt, zoom out" Combining logical arguments to figure out where you are on the chart can help you develop a much better picture, if you still want to trade smaller times, then you have a bias based on the bigger picture. OK - so next, let's take a look at a slightly more advanced view. This is CVD (cumulative delta); https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d37bc375-ceaa-458c-9c32-bb327185f232/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055726.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Anyways! take it easy and good luck out there! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7cb3dd19-2a44-4ad9-8395-9ac751b9e586/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055331.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Well. I used a box to measure 50% of the move here, just to highlight the obvious. Look left and see the level to volume actually peaked higher on the right and then dropped off, so argument no longer valid. Secondly, the orange line represents the green spike in volume that we lack in the current move. Third point; Look at the Weiss wave moves, again I have covered this in several educational posts here as well as many of my streams, if you don't know what this is. Go back and look through the posts. I often use Weiss to justify a 3 wave in an Elliott wave move. It can quickly highlight the obvious level of impulsive nature. Or in this instance, the lack of. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/80bce2ff-59c1-4f98-80f6-4d16750f3179/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055600.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Now combine the stages above. Let's recap. Bigger players coming in will want better prices. We have divergence on volume. Weiss waves lack impulsiveness. Oscillators oversold or show sideways balance. CVD levels still mostly negative. Footprint key levels have wider gaps to the next layers of liquidity. =============================================================== Now, what else would be worth looking at? Well. one tool I have shared many times in the posts and streams is called COT. COT stands for "Commitment of Traders." It's like keeping track of who is doing what in a big game, but instead of players, we are talking about traders in the financial markets. Imagine you are playing a game with your friends, and you want to know who is on which team. You might have a list that shows how many players are on each team and what roles they play, like who's a striker, who's a defender, and so on. In trading, COT is a report that shows us how many traders are on each team, so to speak. It tells us how many traders are buying and how many are selling certain financial assets, like commodities (like gold, oil) or futures contracts (which are like agreements to buy or sell something at a specific price in the future) AND of COURSE BITCOIN. The COT report is released by official organizations, and it's based on data collected from traders who are required to report their positions in these markets. Why does this matter? revert back to bigger players in the market coming for Bitcoin... just like in a game, knowing which team has more players or which roles are in demand can give you a clue about the game's overall strategy. When we look at the COT report, we can see if there are more traders buying or if more are selling it. This information helps understand the market sentiment. If a lot of traders are buying, it might mean they have a positive outlook, and the price of the asset could go up. On the other hand, if many traders are selling, it might mean they are not so optimistic, and the price could go down. In COT terms, there are two major players I look for in the reports. Asset Managers COT Asset Managers are like assistants for the big investors, like hedge funds or investment firms. These big investors have a lot of money to invest in different things, like stocks, commodities, or other financial assets including Bitcoin. It is the Asset Managers' job to take care of these investments and make sure they are managed well. It's like they are the guardians of the funds. So Asset Managers view of Bitcoin currently seems to be positive. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3ee97ac6-d3b2-4d0a-a438-ef4e562775fc/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055702.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Whilst we have a positive long term outlook. COT would suggest we are not completely ready to shoot off to the moon just yet. I have really tried to over simplify the post here for the sake of education. There's a lot more to each individual section, but knowing these basics will set you off on the right path. Bitcoin becoming institutional is a great opportunity if you know where to look. These moves are far from random as you can see in this post below. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9c1bb334-2379-4fe4-8dba-17b7961c8572/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055201.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out The Liquidity game is much, much easier than you think. Most people only want posts that align with their own beliefs, the reality is Bitcoin is becoming institutional and the more players coming does not simply equate to prices rising. Logic will tell you, these "professional money makers" will want better prices, the accumulation phase on this scale will have retail torn apart. Every $100 rally will feel like the time is now and every $50 drop will feel like the end is near. I've shared countless posts and live streams here, talking about the transition. Here's a whole new set of things to think about to educate yourself on the current situation. In educational terms here we go. When price moves up and volume goes down, this is called divergence. Imagine you're at a party with your friends, and you see two people dancing together. One person is dancing really fast, moving a lot, and having a great time. The other person is dancing slowly and not moving much. This difference in their dance styles is like volume divergence in trading. In trading, volume refers to the number of shares or contracts that are traded in a specific time period. It's like how many people are buying and selling stocks or other financial assets. Volume divergence happens when the price of a stock or asset is going in one direction, like going up, but the volume is not matching it. For example, the price might be rising, but not many people are buying or selling it. It's like the dancing person who is moving fast (price going up) but not many people are joining the dance (low volume). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a3c7ffee-4b76-4cf0-9dad-40320981d121/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055633.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Now for the second player I look at in the COT report. Leveraged Funds Imagine you a bank that allows you to borrow money. You then use that money to invest... Leveraged Funds are a bit like that. They are investment funds that use borrowed money, or leverage, to try to make bigger profits. These funds can invest in different things but in this case their investing in Bitcoin. Here's how it works: Regular Investment: Let's say you have $10, and you decide to put it in a normal bank. Over time, your money might grow a little with interest, and you'll have more than $10. Leveraged Investment: Now, let's imagine you have another bank called a leveraged fund. Your bank give you an extra $10 as a loan, so you have a total of $20 to put into this leveraged bank account. This means you can invest twice as much as you originally had! However, there's also a risk with leveraged funds. If the investments don't do well, you might lose more money than you initially had. For example, if your $20 goes down to $15, you still need to repay the $10 you borrowed, so you'll end up with only $5 of your own money left. The summary here is that larger investors use leveraged funds, so unlike Asset Managers who have a very long outlook. The Leveraged Funds element of the COT report is smaller timeframes but still a lot of volume. So, what is their current view? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/71b3003f-1223-45d9-82f3-33b7dc7a546a/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055439.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out The monthly stochastic clearly showing overbought. And an off the shelf OBV showing sideways balance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9995349e-a2d2-4a86-a5ce-a9b651b479ee/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055304.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Ok so step one, there is a clear divergence of volume... Next I can guarantee some people will question the relationship to the price. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e88daaad-f14f-4bee-b97c-8b4fd7382c3b/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055351.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out Zoomed in and then over to the monthly timeframe. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dd37e5e8-62d5-4e69-8fcb-7793cec547e8/Screenshot+2024-08-13+055528.png Blog posts - Level up your understanding - Make it stand out What does the numbers mean? Imagine you have a piggy bank, and every day, you either put money into it or take some money out. The total amount of money you've put in or taken out is like the cumulative delta. In trading, cumulative delta is a way to keep track of the buying and selling activities in the market for a particular financial asset, like a stock. Instead of money, we use something called "contracts" or "shares" to represent the buying and selling. When traders buy a stock, it's like they are putting money into the piggy bank. And when they sell the stock, it's like taking money out of the piggy bank. The cumulative delta keeps track of the difference between the number of shares bought and the number of shares sold throughout the day or a specific period. This image above tracks the numbers for each swing. When coupled with other tools such as Footprint levels, you can see where the higher levels of liquidity is sitting. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/its-a-numbers-game monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1db9d396-efed-423e-8fa6-c91fe283ce9e/Screenshot+2024-07-30+112129.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out Here's where the Professionals play the game differently. Trying to make 1-5% is a lot more sustainable than trying to land a 900x return. You have to remember 90% of traders lose 90% of their accounts in 90 days... This can easily be attributed to things like; Buying signals Following influencers Over trading Trading too small a timeframe Trying to find a silver bullet As a professional - you can seek smaller returns, spend less time in front of the charts and let your money work for you, instead of you doing all the chasing! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/46d77bd4-de2b-4bea-9952-41d8d530296b/Screenshot+2024-07-30+112201.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out As the amount of capital rises, so does your desire for risk. You might still have the appetite for returns but not at the cost of risk. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4013b33a-2bcf-49da-9557-8aded9a6d528/Screenshot+2024-07-30+111653.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out I see this more and more, especially in the crypto space. There are some wild stories out there from turning $8k to a billion through to a Pizza for 10,000 Bitcoin. Here are some home truths. Although most of you won't want to hear this. You see, as a professional trader - there is 1 key factor, almost a scale balancing between too much and just enough. Everyone pushes for more returns, we are only human after all. We have had stories of Wall Street Titans and Vegas big wins, but there is some simple logic to this. You might have entered the market after Covid hit the world and wanted an extra income, might have seen a way to make millions from the money the government sent you? The issue is this is no different that rolling a dice in Vegas but without the fun! You possibly saw some influencer selling you the dream - they fail to tell you, they trade on demo accounts and make their income from affiliate links and social media watch time! When you think of investors like Warren Buffet, you have to understand - he didn't watch an influencer video and say to himself "I want to be like that guy" - investing is often a long term thing and not a get rich quick scheme. Here's a few examples to hit home. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a612fbf9-cb9a-4b7c-818a-ffea8e6984f0/Screenshot+2024-07-30+111721.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out This is boring, not worth it - so instead you seek higher returns, that opens up the possibility of falling into scams, listening to the wrong crowd and having dreams. To be honest, it's probably more enjoyable spending a day at the races. With a smaller account, you can grow it a little, add to it on the next pay day and of course compound the investments. As you move up the scale. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bd52c725-c17c-4e9b-8c05-0bcfcc3f793e/Screenshot+2024-07-30+112222.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out As a professional trader, you can afford the luxury of trading a bias and scaling into a trade - you will find fund managers who have what's known as secondary investment capital (in essence to add to winning positions). So although this is not going to be what you want to hear, it's what you need to know. There's always chasing the dream, but why not wake up and make it a reality? Enjoy the weekend all! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/47759f21-7351-4093-9b36-8cb81524cd26/Screenshot+2024-07-30+112031.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out his is probably where most "semi serious" market goers start. It's often a flurry into the market cash in hand. The assumption often the same; you have done well to amass a lumpy investment, your clearly good at the field you have been in to earn your pot. Why wouldn't you be a good trader? After all, these kid influencers are making millions on their demo accounts. Jump to the next level... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/83567207-5390-4974-a6bc-891020feb7a0/Screenshot+2024-07-30+112058.png Blog posts - It's a numbers game - Make it stand out Your either a captain of industry, you have had your own business or you have a kind daddy. How you got here is not important, staying here is. When you trade with a medium sized account you start to think a little different. Instead of looking for 900x returns, you start thinking about investments that are a little less risky. This is the scales I mentioned earlier. You are now in the space of a good return might be good enough. Too high of a risk, means you are thinking of safe guarding your cash. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/hey-siri-why-is-nvidia-mooning monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0f80ddb3-d997-4388-8037-443d9e7b33f3/Screenshot+2024-07-30+111419.png Blog posts - Hey Siri, why is NVIDIA Mooning? - Make it stand out There are so many possibilities with AI and we are still early, very early! NVIDIA stock closed near a trillion-dollar market value this week as shares surged 25% following a better than expected earnings report from an artificial intelligence boom globally. This puts NVIDIA at around 160% plus on the year in terms of it's stock price. This in turn attracts late comers to the party. Of course, they were already on the up n up from growth since the Pandemic. The Covid outbreak and lockdowns around the world meant gaming took off in a big way. Cloud adoption surged and crypto enthusiasts turned to its chips for mining coins. To make things 'better' Goldman Sachs analysts now estimate that U.S. investment in AI could approach 1% of the country's economic output by 2030. All green lights for AI and NVIDIA. But the reason this tech company, more than others right now is soaring? Well, did you know??? The large computers that process data and power generative AI run on powerful chips called graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia produces about 80% of GPUs, according to analysts. What else is there to know? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7a037302-906b-4031-b63d-fc426cf6a3da/Screenshot+2024-07-30+111348.png Blog posts - Hey Siri, why is NVIDIA Mooning? - Make it stand out The simple answer is AI. Amongst other things, but currently AI is the latest Buzzword on everyone's lips! I recently posted a stream on how you can use chat GPT to make a pinescript indicator (see below) https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/live-stream-bitcoin-algorithm monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/78bdf708-c030-41bb-877b-3a15ca9c64a3/Screenshot+2024-08-13+054201.png Blog posts - Live stream - Bitcoin Algorithm - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/the-other-side-of-the-trade-1 monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d344a510-c26e-4146-a0d6-d52c96ae4437/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053534.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out Trading has this stigma attached to it, everyone thinks they can come and make their millions. The reality is, 90% of new traders lose 90% of their funds in 90 days. I've talked for years about the negative side of trading (trust me, I've done this over 20 years) Trading is often perceived as a wonderful, fabulous lifestyle. Cars, yachts, jets and women! Probably fueled by films like the Wolf of Wall Street. But not many people like admitting to the other side of the traders lifestyle. Of course, it's nowhere near as glamorous - it sure as hell won't get social media likes or follows. But it's there and it's real! There are a couple of main points that I want to touch on, especially for you newer traders coming to find your fortunes. 1) Trading can be boring! Yes, boring as shait. If you are used to having a 9-5, you do not realise the effects (good and bad) on having human interaction throughout the day. You might have a partner you live with, the family. But what about when they go to work or school? You are left with your own thoughts. Yes, this can be dangerous!!! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6d52e5a6-6ce0-456c-a192-3f4060578a81/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053643.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out The issues can include lack of motivation, uncertainty in what to do, overthinking. On your bad days, you have nobody to comfort you and on your good days, you have nobody to share the excitement with! Joining communities can be a good fix here, providing you find a good one. This doesn't have to effect your trading, your strategy or anything else - but interaction could save you from the loneliness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/af085261-f6a0-4324-b250-9a56da0cde5c/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053716.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out The solitary nature of trading can sometimes lead to feelings of isolation and loneliness. Without the support and camaraderie of others in a similar field, it can be challenging to share experiences, discuss strategies, or seek advice. Additionally, the pressure and stress of making high-stakes financial decisions can further contribute to a sense of isolation. 2) STRESS - Stress is a huge factor for a trader. Stress could also stem from the loneliness, stress when dealing with finance is an area where a lot of people suffer, traders and non traders alike. The issue is for traders, stress is often self inflicted. Most new traders come to the market with a view of it's easy, fast paced, exciting and therefore have the perception of making it big. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1d4a54d1-c684-4b23-9732-38dda3c6bd2d/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053832.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out This is like trying to read 9 books at the same time whilst writing essays in 6 different languages. All of these factors will 100% add to your stress. You might have anxiety when executing a trade, or feel the burden of stress whilst in a trade. Scared to see the numbers go red and too eager when they go green?! Yup been there, done that. So has every trader out there. Stop feeling like this. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/518def3f-bb6c-46a5-b600-09a85ab1af1e/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053740.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out If it was this easy, people wouldn't spend 7 years becoming doctors or lawyers. Instead they would follow the money! Come on, who wouldn't - Yachts n all. It's this popular belief that usually drives traders into the stressful state which becomes the norm until they give up! To counter the loneliness and try to make it big, traders (probably you) I know I did! look at indicators, try to take on as much info as possible! Which takes you down this path. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b300bff9-0cb8-4dad-986c-618525b491e3/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053859.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out Creation of a strategy... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d75a5866-a11c-4688-a620-b6fbccd2a751/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053920.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out All you need to help combat these types of stresses, is find an edge. The edge could be very simple - from reading books, stepping away from the charts, viewing higher time frames, moving away from social media influencers. All the way through to mastering one instrument. When you see indicators like the image above, what happens if two are in one direction and the rest in another? You start to argue with yourself, you miss good trades and you end up taking bad ones. This leads to stress and then you realise, yup your lonely! What a cycle to be trapped in! Now how about you flip the thinking here? Less charts to stare at, less indicators to confuse, more time to read, exercise or simply go play golf. Your edge does not need to be technical, fancy or shown on 48 screens. Sometimes less is more and this can combat the stress and golf is always a winner for loneliness. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a3f59e57-acd1-44aa-89ec-24c32c5dfef7/Screenshot+2024-08-13+053804.png Blog posts - The other side of the trade - Make it stand out Indicators. there must be a holy grail, a silver bullet? 100% winning strategy? People waste so much time on retail indicators thinking they will be the one to find the edge. You would be better off having a trip to Vegas and playing the first slot machine you spot! The next issue is - too much data or the attempt to obtain too much of it! I remember when my setup matched this below (if not more screens) https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/tradingview-volume-tools monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7529bea2-da0a-4695-9c05-66f018941cf2/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081441.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out Here's another view - this is the session volume profile and periodic volume combined without the candles being visible. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b48fa3e8-e106-44da-809d-f33778341e67/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081134.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out It can also be used standalone for spotting divergence for example. You can see how the volume up and price up yet in the third price move up, volume has lowered. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/40eb99dd-f403-4b23-a1cf-b8b252e8358c/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081039.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out I've been using Tradingview for just over 8 years now. When I initially started using it I was transitioning from using Footprint tools. I would use techniques that in essence allowed you to see inside a candle. Coupled with techniques such as "DOM" Depth of Market and Cumulative Delta. After a while you get to see some of this stuff without the need of indicators. Tradingview have steadily added various tools to the platform and with a little help from being able to code your own tools it's made it an interesting space to play. So here's a quick overview on the abilities, encase you have yet to explore. This is not a lesson on volume as such, just educating you as to what the possibilities can be. Most would have seen or at least know about the volume on the X axis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/eb8abc74-3691-4efe-979f-3b6e5d79c6a0/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081604.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out Like I said, this is not a lesson on each tool - it's an intro to, for you to spend the time to play around with these tools. Feel free to ask questions below. Enjoy the rest of the week! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e60d8b08-3f93-4332-b36d-664c42f99bcd/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081542.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out I have used a low and a high here to find the PoC - Point of Control. Then finally, you have visible range; this I tend to use less personally, but I know many people like it. This allows you to view the volume profile based on what you have visible on the chart. As you can imagine, as you zoom in n out, it can change. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a0e336f9-8951-4bb1-916e-8ed6ddbe0f4d/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081403.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out Well, I've taken that a few steps further. What started as an idea in terms of using Footprint, X axis volume and then what's called periodic volume profile. I personally like to turn the bars/candles off when I got this on. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c76fc04e-7669-4128-9828-1cd4b89b59ab/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081150.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out There are also various styles of showing this volume data - one such tool is Weiss waves. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4d4c5040-ff68-4ce0-97ed-c73e34ad4337/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081101.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out This simply gives an idea of the happening of that particular candle, of course things can alter or yield different results based on settings and time frames. we've taken the time to incorporate this simple volume in one of our own indicators. Which is coupled with a Stochastic and a few other bits. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0d9c2c51-3d89-4140-b23f-c3377beba79f/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081504.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out This new indicator extracts various pieces of data and paints key levels based on my old trading style. As you can see today, this is showing like a magnet where the key levels in Bitcoin are likely to be. There's a bit more to it than that but in essence, its what I am showing here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/18ea94b8-e1b3-4712-b4a8-1104fec26c67/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081522.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out To finish with you have two other tools here on Tradingview - one which is fixed range volume, just as it says on the tin. You can see volume inside a range you determine. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7e5496ee-7c5f-412d-bff3-f0de99301875/Screenshot+2024-07-30+081213.png Blog posts - Tradingview Volume tools - Make it stand out These are great in conjunction with techniques such as Elliott Waves and Wyckoff. I've shown this over the last two years here on TradingView and both of these techniques have been very useful on Bitcoin during this time. I mentioned CVD the cumulative Volume Delta, here you can see this under the Weiss Wave indicator. Like I said, have a play around with these on your own charts. You will spot some interesting things once you get to know them. Try various instruments as well as timeframes. More recently I posted a video on using Chat GPT to build a pinescript indicator. Here's the link to that post. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/controlling-bitcoin-the-composite-operator monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5d83d025-baf3-4e31-a1aa-4e4fa9414cf3/Screenshot+2024-07-30+102942.png Blog posts - Controlling Bitcoin: The Composite Operator? - Make it stand out Follow me for more, please. Get the right side of the trade. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/252a96f4-57c0-4cbf-99d0-309891211f20/Screenshot+2024-07-30+102909.png Blog posts - Controlling Bitcoin: The Composite Operator? - Make it stand out The Composite Operator. "…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it." Most market people tend to scoff at the idea that there is some kind of illuminati running the markets. They say "you're never bigger than the market". I will just deal with one piece of evidence, in the image cap. Just 2204 accounts, a lot of which are owned by the same people, CONTROL 41.87% of the supply. =============================================== So, even if you don't think the Composite Operator exists, you have to admit that it is very definitely doable, isn't it? They could use just 10% of that to push the price where they want, like water in the bath. Give it a bit of a shove when it is running nicely, stop and reverse when they know it's right. If they don't know how, I could show them. In fact, call me guys, I'm open to offers. Read this next: https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/the-cftc-has-failed-since-24th-january-to-publish-cot-data monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d0d98e5e-a75f-4d73-abcd-7dd1d66d99fb/Screenshot+2024-07-30+103532.png Blog posts - The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. - Make it stand out The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8662-23?utm_source=govdelivery COT data is retail's chance to look at the big boys' positions. They can look at ours any time they like. They are our bankers. This report is important, right now, with BTC at a crucial level. It tells us what the big boys did in BTC last week, Why have they not got a replacement report process going in 3 weeks? For a LEGAL reporting requirement? Ask your representative maybe? If you are US. Feb 17, 2023 Comment: You can get the COT tool for nothing, just go to our website. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/btc-dont-open-the-oven-half-way-through monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3741a6e2-c375-4518-a9fe-c77cbbb76c1a/Screenshot+2024-07-30+103300.png Blog posts - BTC: Don't open the oven half way through. - Make it stand out This thing is not yet cooked. It's so exciting to see it moving upwards after so many months, isn't it? It is a bullish sign so far according to our analysis, but looking in the oven when the pudding is trying to rise is not advisable. This is a MONTHLY move, and they can be incredibly protracted. This one is no exception. The volume isn't what it should be yet, also. Be careful. Those of you who have been listening and averaged in using cash BTC like me, should be happy that we are getting a Sign of Strength. Nothing has changed since my last essay on this subject a few days ago. I still expect a pop up above 25.5k to get the last shorts out. It could even wick up higher, but the mass of red bags around 30k isn't going away. I still think the best way to get your money out of you would be a pop as above, followed by a series of dips that look very buyable. Those of you not puffed in at the top will buy these dips instead if you aren't careful. There will be another drop to beat the stuffing out of you afterwards. You may notice I use two (different) price inputs and divide the sum by 2 to get an average that smooths out price and makes volume more accurate. Public Service Announcement: (This should be a Public Financial Health Warning) The moonbois are out there with their mouths open, try not to let your animal instinct take over. You have a brain, use it. The video on the left is basically an ad for BuyBit. Go ahead and watch it and then say I am wrong. The psychology is simple: Tell the people what they want to hear, and give them an avenue to spend their money. Win or lose, he makes money. You? He isn't bothered if you do. The solo video was from only 6 days ago. How did THAT make you feel? Bullish? See how he inflated the price axis to make it seem more extreme? You all remember the bull times in BTC and how it ran off and you had to hold your breath and believe? That's the memory the big boys want you to have, and they will take advantage. Feb 17, 2023 Comment: Just because we came off 8% after I said don't buy it, does NOT make me a genius who made the right call, so let's go short. Be patient. There can easily be another wick up. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/please-curb-your-enthusiasm-in-bitcoin monthly 0.5 2024-07-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/833bb38b-7cea-4f68-9b9c-e87c9c749eba/Screenshot+2024-07-30+080314.png Blog posts - Please curb your enthusiasm in Bitcoin. - Make it stand out At the moment there are a lot of internet "gurus" spouting nonsense. The guy in the picture is just one example. Over 500,000 subscribers being told that BTCUSD will be $50,000 in the next 3-4 months and to buy it up here after this rally. They are all telling you EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR. When the price was $18,000 they were saying it was all over for Bitcoin. They are basically marketers not traders. They market for Buybit or Bitget or whoever. They make a lot of money when someone like you puts money into an exchange account. Now, turning to logic: Look at the chart, especially at the volume, which tells us a story, which I have marked. There is also the psychological story. Lots of you are nursing nasty red bags from the last consolidation around $30,000. You would love it to get there so you can get out. PSA: That's why it won't get there this time. Maybe next time, possibly after you have given up and sold your position after the next drop. All the price has done is pierce a succession of stop-loss levels to ping out the shorts who sold lower down, believing the negative press and the chat from exactly the same people who are now saying it is going up. I reckon one more pop up to the next level just north of $25,000, then a slow melting away, with you buying every dip. Patience is a virtue. It's hard to be patient I know. Hang on, this is a MONTHLY structure and this is still the beginning of the accumulation, not the end. We will tell you when we think it is the end. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/why-is-trading-so-emotional monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/20d301b3-000e-40e3-bf22-0ce07d5f4535/Screenshot+2024-07-29+095900.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out In August last year, I published an educational post around Fibonacci. There's also thousands of articles and books available on the topic. But how does it fit with being emotional? Often people talk about Algos, smart money concepts and a load of other terms. All trying to make sense of the market, Fibonacci isn't magical or mystical. It's a set of simple numbers that work - due to humans wanting to see patterns in everything they look at. Here's the article from last year - feel free to click it and go through that one as well. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2418047f-d2c6-4653-9618-e889f5fce433/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100019.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Swing 3 = 100% of the A-B https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c9e156c7-3477-4cf2-b909-5c499acf5ffa/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100106.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Swing 5 = 1.23 range and 1.27 range of the A-B https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f0cc9fdd-40c5-4dbf-9cdf-a952eca58777/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100345.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out This was August the 24th - read the comments as to why the drop was coming (4 move) and why we would likely see the drop just above the old all time high. By October we had seen the forecasted extension levels getting hit - a retest followed this and we dropped. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fee6b74a-1434-4472-91dc-91ef2b3f391c/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100124.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Then even when you step down a level you can see the move inside the moves looking similar. Local support is 618... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/626014cb-3371-4bea-ad83-f47c9ee3dd0c/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100322.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Lucky Guess? Well - maybe on the way back from the 28k levels highlighted in March, the very same fibs became obvious. If we where seeing Elliott waves form you could therefor measure the fib extensions. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c163286d-4ebd-49f9-8162-ca39a4078ed9/Screenshot+2024-07-29+095957.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Swing 2 = 100% of the A-B https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6d230714-0154-4202-aa8a-7ba5a65c46ce/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100149.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out When I started posting on @TradingView publicly - I explained why we where seeing value areas and re-accumulation for the first times. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c5567bf6-f430-4efc-9a5e-65be2afe5c54/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100216.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out These levels were starting to show signs of the crypto space being institutionalised. This is important to understand, as much like Fibonacci levels, the price would now act in a different way to psychological levels. In stepped Wyckoff and you could see from before and after - where and why the price would go. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/8b77f059-9e40-4011-8445-1134cb7001e2/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100252.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Before Here's the AFTER shot. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b946867c-7c11-4ee0-9c38-203830c4129c/Screenshot+2024-07-29+095925.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out The issue I have when educating people - is there is always a desire to find an automated solution. I keep saying, if algos are that good - we wouldn't have school, doctors or firemen; they would all be sipping cocktails on a beach far away! If you want to learn technical analysis, you really need to dig deep into the emotional analysis. People like Dow, Elliott and Wyckoff (for me, are not technical gurus) they merely understood - human psychology made waves, changed sentiment - the bigger players in the markets know this. It's why most news outlets and websites around TA push writers who only talk MA's and RSI's. It keeps fresh sheep on track. The market is all about liquidity - these levels are created at psychological levels & from there, it's copy, paste, repeat. Take a look at this on the current Bitcoin move down from the All Time High. Swing 1 = 618 of A-B https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6e409341-e90c-457a-8d2a-d60ea3cd6cb4/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100040.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out Swing 4 = 618 of the A-B https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b5a532c1-065b-42e3-9943-b60130a53f91/Screenshot+2024-07-29+100406.png Blog posts - Why is trading so emotional? - Make it stand out So, like I said - there's nothing magical, it's all about sentiment and psychology. Learn this and you will progress as a trader. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/the-news-just-serves-to-confuse monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/46d4476e-c1eb-4410-9880-63424f97cbcb/Screenshot+2024-07-29+095619.png Blog posts - The News Just Serves To Confuse - Make it stand out I have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts. News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions. You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end. I am 100% certain that I only started to be successful after I stopped DIRECTIONAL trading based on news. Of course, I know the broad mass of what's going on in the markets and which news events may have an effect. I haven't stopped listening to and reading the news, but I HAVE started to see it all differently. You can see from the chart that all the recent "Shock News" has no real impact unless you are a day trader. rate decision, statements, unemployment, blah blah.... I am not saying that news is not important, I'm saying that you need to translate it and to be aware of why it is written. This probably sounds like a weird thing to say, but hear me out. Do a memory check with me. When was the last time that the news was all positive about bitcoin? Answer: At the top and on the way down, when the big boys were selling it to naïve retail (like you, probably). Now we are at the bottom, all the news is negative on BTC. I wonder why? (HINT: They want you to panic out so they can buy.) There are three possible reasons for this. 1. The writers are dumb. They are part of the retail crowd themselves and are therefore subject to the same impulses, fears and hopes. They get carried away when things are pumping, and drop into despair when the markets plunge. 2. The whole industry is driven by the big firms, who obviously want to make as much money as they can. Retail traders are, on average, so bad at trading that brokers don't even put their trades into the market, preferring to risk taking the other side themselves. 75% of retail traders lose money. 90% of retail traders will lose 90% of their first trading account in the first 90 days. If I were a broker I would take the other side of those odds, thanks. All I have to do now is make people trade as much as possible. I get commission, and I probably get their stake as well. How to make people trade as much as possible? PUMP OUT NEWS THAT TRIGGERS TRADING. 3. A combination of 1 and 2. The financial industry, from megabanks through to news services, gurus and brokers, is set up to excite people about trading as much as possible. There is constant pressure to provide reasons why oil rose 5% or SP500 dropped 8% etc etc, and even on slow weeks the sheer amount of stories that are published is mind-blowing. The writers are unlikely to be traders themselves, and they just pump out stories based on what happened yesterday and what MIGHT happen today. It is all designed as a massive call to action that is constant, and traders just like you open (and close) positions based on "market analyst" pieces written by economists and professional analysts employed by the brokers. Are you beginning to see how it all fits together? The industry LOVES a day trader most of all, because they lose their stake the fastest, so day trading is promoted as exciting. After all, it IS exciting. Trading gives you a buzz. It's addictive, possibly more so than gambling. It is gambling after all, only slightly different, and if you trade like a gambler, you lose in the end. So, how do I look at news? 1. If trading short-timeframe, I am aware of figures that are due this week, and avoid holding a position coming up to an announcement, and for a while afterwards. 2. If trading medium- to long-term, I remember that the non-farm payrolls may move the market a few percent sometimes, but when you zoom out you can barely see the effect. As a result most of my trading is swing trading. 3. I regard it as a reverse indicator if anything. It never ceases to amaze me when I am thinking about taking a long in, say, Gold, and then an email hits my inbox containing a bearish Gold story. I don't think I am becoming QAnon but I do think these stories can easily be planted by the big players. What journalist doesn't want to write a story after they interview some "master of the universe" trader from GS or JPM or wherever. Or maybe the boss says "write a Gold story today", so they call up their contact who trades it for a bank. Same effect. The banks are in buy mode, and they need retail to sell it to them. If this sounds like I think the whole thing is a colossal rigged casino, then I am getting my point across. News is just a part of the effort to separate you from your cash, but it's doing a great job. So, what to do? 1. Trade on Price Action only. 2. Be aware of news in case it affects a trade you may place or one that you have on, 3. Understand that nearly all news is designed to make you panic in or out of a trade, and regard it VERY cynically. It can be hard to remain calm in the face of a negative headline, but that's what a good pro trader will do. Currently I am long BTC, despite huge negative headlines. Once again, repeat after me: You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/why-we-are-finally-happy-to-go-long-bitcoin-around-here-logic monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d5c22395-c0eb-427c-a06a-844650e0008e/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094508.png Blog posts - Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC! - Make it stand out If you check out what me and my partner @Mayfair_Ventures have been saying for MONTHS, you will see that yesterday proved us right. If you are serious about trading, then take the time to actually read these posts and watch these streams, and you will learn a LOT. Look at the Elliott Wave plot. We recognised the Big Blue 3 as the MONTHLY 3, leading us to expect a long and deep correction. Way back in September we were saying that we expect a new ATH (weekly 5, monthly 3) but it would be weak: CORRECT On the way down from the ATH we said it was targeting 35k, this was correct too, see: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7c9b015e-fd63-4cfc-93f3-7e62001013ba/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094738.png Blog posts - Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC! - Make it stand out All the so-called YouTube "gurus" had this chart, and all said if it broke out of the channel it was entering a downtrend. This is wrong. It HAS to break out in order to get to the monthly 4, so that it can panic retail into selling before the next big rise. This allows the big players to reload. The gurus make retail traders panic and sell into the arms of the big players, they are part of the problem. They come in right on cue predicting a downtrend. :facepalm So, to the point of this article. We think that probabilities favour that the White A is in or nearly in, and once this consolidation is complete without a further collapse, we think that probabilities favour a fast corrective move up to the White B. These are probabilities only and we can be wrong. So, we are watching the consolidation, expecting a move up, and our bias has switch to long in this AREA. Remember, there's no point trying to pick a low. Go in in the right areas, go small, and add to the position when you get more confirmation. The more evidence you gather, the more you pick high probability trades. If you really want maximum comfort, you should wait for the White C, which allows much more confirmation. @Mayfair_Ventures will do this I bet. He has more patience than the rest of us put together. Good Luck and thanks for reading. I will update this as the consolidation continues. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/53d3aff6-5eb8-49d4-8312-e48af63d7ccd/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094609.png Blog posts - Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC! - Make it stand out When it got to 45k again I published this: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dcc2d18e-5631-4745-bfa7-7a4aa8dd55e8/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094652.png Blog posts - Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC! - Make it stand out This was because there was a HUGE resistance at 48k, and the move up was not looking impulsive enough to be the real push for B. We say it as the 4th (upward) wave of the correction, labelled as D in orange. (people argue about how to label Elliott Wave but we don't care if it's labelled 4 or D or Y). I think I was $36 wrong with the prediction of the top at 48k. I also looked in detail at the redistribution I could see playing out in my streams last week, using Wyckoff Theory: https://www.tradingview.com/streams/hR1S0ClxzG/ https://www.tradingview.com/streams/5zG-I8ZehP/ These predicted this fall as it was starting. Last week I published this: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a561b27d-b28f-4b73-b168-2804e0485a72/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094543.png Blog posts - Why we are finally happy to go long Bitcoin around here. LOGIC! - Make it stand out When it got to 35K we saw only a 3-wave correction when 70%+ of such corrections should be zigzag and hence 5 waves, so there was more to it. This was finally proved yesterday. So we expected a bounce from 35k then a drop. When it got to 45k on the bounce I published this, saying don't FOMO in. We had reached a resistance and logic was either calling for the 5 wave move = DOWN, or a 3 wave move with A already in = DOWN. Either way down. FOMO-ers got rekt. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/educational-cartoons monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e3b5749e-ffad-4f5d-ac3d-9c2b11a70148/Screenshot+2024-07-29+075440.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Although this next one is not Cartoon based - there are a bunch of useful resources in each of these books. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7e2747b1-5817-45f8-94d3-71e9414b5def/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093543.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Wyckoff in particular spoke about "Composite Man" whereby one can assume the market operators being one force. The game is to obtain profits from retail losses. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d2bddde6-1d0a-4990-9dee-a3b5d7412829/Screenshot+2024-07-29+075625.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Too often, especially in Crypto I see people rush in on bad advice; I tried to use other styles of cartoons to highlight the obvious - this shows that when the market is exhausted, it cannot be ONLY UP!!! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/86e4cb70-fcec-4332-8604-76c3905dae65/Screenshot+2024-07-29+075534.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out If you are a complete novice - here's a few pointers from an Easter egg post. Not for the more advanced, just a few tips to you guys starting out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/61de0ae7-abc1-4f9e-b1c0-9f3b646f3b9a/Screenshot+2024-07-29+075403.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Over the last 12 months or so, I spent some time creating cartoons to work around some heavy educational topics. A lot of this is done by using the @TradingView Polyline tool. I wanted to share them in one place along with a chronology that might fit some pieces together for some of you in the community. So let's walk through each; For those who don't know me, I've traded a very long time - from my experience, the major hurdle for any new trader, regardless of the instrument is psychology. People think they can come into a market, follow a guru or watch a youtube video and become industry experts! You need to understand the psychology behind the market and yourself, before you can even start to scratch the surface in terms of trading. To highlight this, take a look (each post - you can click through the image for the full post) Let's start with Homer Simpson. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/28f00471-9724-48b6-8acf-46d2c1dba7d8/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093621.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Last March I was showing the major move down inbound - all I had was stick, people kept telling me it was accumulation and not distribution. Well look how that played out. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/da9699bb-db7c-4bb7-892e-6156a33e33d5/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093425.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Bitcoin was more than happy - rolling around at the levels we were seeing, expectations and sentiment wanted 100k, 275k - even a million. But there was no supporting evidence to suggest that was where we are headed (yet). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a802e489-e6ac-4cdf-9795-d6be2f9704dd/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093933.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out There's a lot of "un-common" sense in the world. Following or not bothering to learn only leads to failure. You wouldn't perform heart surgery after watching a video. Why throw your hard earned money at an investment with that level of insight? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/948c6ef1-af0c-4b8f-a071-61c65f8953ec/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094136.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out After reading that post, you might need a little cryptotherapy ... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/22296656-83df-4dc2-8882-5baadcd4b977/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093652.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Once you understand the process - it is much, much easier to make informed decisions with an edge. Instead of playing the fool, learn to think for yourself. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/168dc278-3425-44c0-b62e-ce14d892e5ab/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094247.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Either that or you end up like the Perma bulls who followed Plan-B or moon carl into buying the top. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f9cd6ff1-3ee5-462e-958c-3c21afa337a2/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094211.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Sitting back to relax and not wasting hours on a chart - can actually be beneficial for your health and your wallet. I know it's not easy to say and of course, its even harder to do. But what you need to remember is retail tend to lose 70% + of their trades. So take a few less and search for higher probability. It's a numbers game overall. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1dad93a7-513b-4828-b498-f83f0f3597a0/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094014.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Like I said above - it's a battle between composite man (institutional) vs Retail. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/84d45100-e29c-4f7e-a728-afde5c203d04/Screenshot+2024-07-29+075701.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out For this, I covered a post as to why people get into Crypto. What is the logic for jumping both feet into a new, unregulated asset class? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a5b95cd3-e3de-4d60-91d8-b60c0a36b690/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093339.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out This one image sums it up nicely! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/581f8b97-0942-4baa-8bfc-f17eb691c326/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093758.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/74054753-02d2-4d50-92c7-d4737461d61d/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093849.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out I know it's tricky, especially when starting out - you’re often left scratching your head. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4fabfaed-f021-4420-94fd-9eedbfb175ff/Screenshot+2024-07-29+093508.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out You see although the cartoons are simple - they are very specific to the journey - either as a new trader or if your a follower of crypto markets. The main issue I see with Crypto - is the crowd. Therefore you have to analyse the charts from an emotional perspective; some great traders including Elliott, Wyckoff & Gann. Actually understood not technical analysis - but emotional sentiment. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9bdd6c40-9fe7-4a81-9b21-1b4f74f443f5/Screenshot+2024-07-29+094050.png Blog posts - Educational cartoons - Make it stand out Keep in mind - these guys are professional money makers; they spent years practicing the dark arts. They know the tricks. Some of which are not all that obvious. Take dark pools for example. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/quantitative-easing-inflation-of-the-economy monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6fdb22b3-660d-4819-aced-3211ac362175/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074509.png Blog posts - Quantitative easing - inflation of the economy - Make it stand out Many people simply do not understand economics; and why should they - it's Foooooking complex. I hear and read, all the time. Bitcoin solves inflation - without any real sound logic as to why or how... When you travel back in time, the monetary systems have changed and evolved but are moving further and further away from the "gold" standard. Now as a crypto maxi, you might see this as a good thing. However, it also has it's drawdowns. The reason Gold and silver has been used for thousands of years is that it cannot be made and holds a rare earth material (Value) this is not as simple as saying "a store of value" and this I feel is where the confusion comes in. So let's explain how the governments use quantitative easing to cheat the public. In simple terms this is a policy in which the central bank's try to increase the liquidity in its financial system, in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity. Or so we are told. If you look at this chart going back to 1965. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fd8c4a53-e539-4c46-8b04-72d2716574b8/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074711.png Blog posts - Quantitative easing - inflation of the economy - Make it stand out In summary it can help an economy out of recession, but it can drive an economy to recessions also. So why or how does Gold and Silver fit in? Well, as the value of money (cash) drops down, spending power is robbed, pensions depleted and costs sky rocket. The Dollars in circulation can buy less "store of value assets" - thus driving the price of said assets up. This is where many people get confused with the adoption of Bitcoin. They assume that with Bitcoin being decentralised (kinda) - you have to remember the rules and regulations imposed on money in and out of the system (KYC & AML) - on an immutable ledger; this is optimal for taxation, identification and traceability by the way. The main issue is the store of value is only driven by what's in circulation, how much demand and how accessible the supply. It is already stated that 91% of all of the BTC in existence is in the hands of the Elite. The value per coin is only the supply vs demand battle, it's similarities to gold means it can be lost, stolen or stored. But it's the underpinning method the governments use to increase the value of gold - that makes it likely to remain "THE WAY" for the foreseeable future. If I am honest I see Bitcoin or another crypto taking over the cash/payment system - more than I see it as a digital gold. Anyways - have a great weekend, I thought this would be an interesting topic for discussion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4234a467-2e7d-45e7-878f-77ed164b52a2/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074554.png Blog posts - Quantitative easing - inflation of the economy - Make it stand out You will see the QE levels of rapid supply of money - with nothing under pinning it. This is where the Gold standard is lost. However, the story does not end there for Gold & Silver. Take a look at this: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d49d08cc-3bd7-4566-8c0d-d1fb7b72283b/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074644.png Blog posts - Quantitative easing - inflation of the economy - Make it stand out These curves are parabolic. How's about Russia - could get even worse after this war: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ce12c84b-d25a-4085-9249-0c3518769412/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074618.png Blog posts - Quantitative easing - inflation of the economy - Make it stand out This is the Qualitative economic impact of the quantitative easing. This shows, the asset price increases and then falls off a cliff. All whilst the Money (paper money) flattens out. So with the injection into the economy (wink wink) the demand increases, the price increases and with a slight of hand - we have more borrowed dollars, less tangible assets to support it. This isn't just a US problem, nor a European issue - it's a global, corrupt government issue. This is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Take a look at countries such as Australia: https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/roadmap-update monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d51cbd4c-28ca-4f17-8ffa-205dfa55b026/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071940.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/08f85a58-5efc-4db5-80d6-822b32ba7530/Screenshot+2024-07-29+073802.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Both are following suit. And here's the updates. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2aa9dd9c-65f6-40dc-a895-fe38d2cd1d8c/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074159.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Nearly a month to get there - but clear ping and rejection - like clockwork. Nov 10, 2021 As a 4 is often 382 (pullback) $45,900 roughly at the current high - providing the current high is a 3 Monthly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b8672602-c0f9-44e9-864c-73fd80fda3e7/Screenshot+2024-07-29+073920.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ee183b47-3e44-4e41-b772-1d8b53743769/Screenshot+2024-07-29+073736.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Then followed through with an exact location map on March the 26th. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/733f1b7b-f646-4793-8987-ef2c5c6d5376/Screenshot+2024-07-29+073853.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out So what's changed? Well not much to be honest. Looking at the Fib extensions; I feel we might not go as high as initially forecasted before the monthly 4 starts on it's journey, the momentum is feeling very similar to the BC, UT and now expecting a type of UTAD in Wyckoff terms. These all marry the Elliott extension levels. When the time is right I'll be jumping back in - not shorting, but not long "YET" Here's the Wyckoff lesson at the top of the previous ATH. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d204b31c-9e5d-492b-8b74-c214bd53c7e2/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074310.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out If I had to stick a wild guess right now on the levels we see next, it would look something like this. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/52997841-164c-4662-af9d-fedf636433bd/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074222.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Logic for projected 5th wave making a monthly 3. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/45a61709-30f9-4a6b-9ed1-336b76469ec0/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074129.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out and After: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c07b9023-66d4-4d19-b5f7-c2d5b020561f/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074344.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/114d26a1-dade-4b9b-8782-3210bf87b169/Screenshot+2024-07-29+074245.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out Without Roadmap overlay or fib levels. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e26c8fdc-8ff9-4de3-8350-e39a54ba6ed4/Screenshot+2024-07-29+073830.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out And the Elliott wave: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/54d0bd13-2d90-4cd3-8bb7-704001bc65a3/Screenshot+2024-07-29+073937.png Blog posts - Roadmap update - Make it stand out The price is becoming more and more institutionalised you can see from things like the Forecasted levels back in September (prior to price entering these levels EVER). That they can be pretty concise as a whole. Before: https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/comic-strip-chaos-amp-carnage monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dcaf9461-dded-4bfd-a1ad-0444b8358368/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071314.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out Yes all of these are drawings! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c3c578fb-78a7-4760-8047-864f832c336b/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071336.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out The roadmap allowed us to remain calm as we had already anticipated the move up from the 2017 move, the extension levels up to 60k, the Wyckoff distribution in play and the extension down for the drop (as seen in the rocket move) Just like Deadpool - calm and confident! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c744234f-102c-44f7-a867-edc0c52b41b6/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071203.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out I explained the logic as to why the drop was coming - seeing it being cut down by Wolverine; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/91a283cc-85a1-4921-a207-131c5b0558c5/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071508.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out So whilst all the fake gurus were selling themselves as a crypto Ironman https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d061daf2-98a5-442f-aca4-1fa5382a3da4/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071611.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out All of this can be seen here (click here) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/26295617-1e98-4079-8a4e-e1dbc9c0cf32/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071643.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out Over the next couple of weeks, myself and @Paul_Varcoe will be posting and streaming here on Tradingview with the updates to the roadmap. Stay tuned! Enjoy the weekend!! THE END https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b6749d07-c036-4a4d-aad3-dab6e4c28bb4/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071132.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out In March 2021 I posted the rocket call showing exactly why we where doing what it should be. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/36933d1a-1559-4cdf-b329-d18e4b95d5aa/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071107.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out Over the last year, I have been making my Bitcoin trades public. I have been using the @TradingView charts to show the logic for each Bitcoin swing. I have used cartoon posts for the explanation of sometimes technical topics. All with the view of educating the community here on Tradingview. I have traded for over 21 years now, covering all kinds of instruments, found out the hard ways - the strategies that work and the ones that did not! In the last year, the education and logical posts have been posted here to grow awareness of how the emotional sentiment of the retail crowd is leveraged by the institutional players. All I had from each Bearish BTC call was - "it's not distribution, its accumulation" or "PlanB is not wrong" This only shows the strength of the sentiment & as a professional trader, it's useful when doing technical analysis to know the reasons why we are likely to go up or down. We all know the crowd is wrong 75%+ of the time. The retail sentiment only want opinions that are in line with their own purchases and beliefs. Sometimes, to win the war. It's the little battles that count. I have spent this last year looking on at the market, like Batman assessing the situation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/de2f609a-1ae8-4fa3-8df5-a86d01ef3977/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071247.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out From this move down, everyone was expecting a 100k plus rally - we had PlanB call for 92k in April, 98k November and 135k in December. And the crowd only cheered, as Chaos surrounded the crypto market - Hulk was running wild! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/733f5dd9-95c8-4bc7-9165-5548145dfe40/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071546.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out With shiny indicators that made them look advanced. The only logic that worked was to stick to the plan, hang around. Watching the chaos from afar, and getting ready to swing into action. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/505c5a73-ef44-4b4f-a1cc-e7e0cf33ac71/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071443.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out And up to test it, fake out and drop after using the level as strong resistance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/636ef978-0133-467e-b103-85582d2159e6/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071225.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out This was covered in the logic behind Wyckoff DISTRIBUTION https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7a712a5a-7fba-40c5-b1c6-8c2847bed5b5/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071422.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out The levels had been pre set - check out the date https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a4b9f4e6-f14b-4965-a3d0-a39a4cce20b1/Screenshot+2024-07-29+071401.png Blog posts - Comic strip - Chaos & Carnage - Make it stand out Retail crowd much like Groot had one thing to say "100k, 100k, 100k" https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/happy-holidays-cryptoverse monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a4eaa69b-58e2-491e-92e3-fbd6b33e6330/Screenshot+2024-07-29+065224.png Blog posts - Happy Holidays cryptoverse! - Make it stand out Happy Holidays - MERRY CHRISTMAS to you all! It's been another BRILLIANT year for Bitcoin - Thanks @TradingView for the charts. Here's the last post for the year! Bitcoin has become more and more respectful as it's become more institutionalised, still amazing to see! here's the post covering the year's summary (click here) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/516da620-99aa-4e93-890a-d0dbbe094494/Screenshot+2024-07-29+065503.png Blog posts - Happy Holidays cryptoverse! - Make it stand out So it's best to take a little time off over the holiday season: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4a1420a2-7d18-4cb5-a45b-8da49dc512dd/Screenshot+2024-07-29+065531.png Blog posts - Happy Holidays cryptoverse! - Make it stand out Go and relax - enjoy family & friends! Maybe Santa will bring something nice for your stocking. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3fd9937e-6809-476d-a55a-46cdfd4f378b/Screenshot+2024-07-29+065414.png Blog posts - Happy Holidays cryptoverse! - Make it stand out Whilst many where expecting Lambo's for Christmas - Composite Man came and put the spanner in the works. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/29336ddf-c879-4e8d-9334-0416562b7d08/Screenshot+2024-07-29+065558.png Blog posts - Happy Holidays cryptoverse! - Make it stand out Until next year! I wish you all, the very best. Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/you-wont-like-this-one-bitcoin monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0ac7e648-4fe2-4d4a-9167-ddf1f1bb7447/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064759.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out And this making larger cycle 1 when it hits the 5th of this current cycle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4f1c0c4a-1561-47d4-8596-08a5d726ea42/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064855.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out Firstly, what happens when you see yellow dots? we go orange, yellow - boom. Ok and then secondary to that; look at the line straight across until mid 2024 > ==================================================================================================================================== Play this move out - another I posted in March this year, the logic was there for what I would regard as a weekly 3-4 move up for 5 giving a monthly 3. As per the Elliott post above in the roadmap. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4bf4306a-1759-43fc-ae1f-0047a6723471/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064629.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out ========================================================================================================================================= Back to the Tulips According to Smithsonian Magazine, the Dutch learned that tulips could grow from seeds or buds that grew on the mother bulb. A bulb that grew from seed would take seven to 12 years before flowering, but a bulb itself could flower the very next year. So-called "broken bulbs" were a type of tulip with a striped, multicolored pattern rather than a single solid color that evolved from a mosaic virus strain. This variation was a catalyst causing a growing demand for rare, “broken bulb” tulips which is what ultimately led to the high market price. ------------------------------------ According to some technical guys, ₿itcoin can be mined and with enough equipment 1 full coin can flower over a year - due to the halving, which causes an increase in demand. It is driven to high market prices. ========================================================================================================================================= In 1634, tulipmania swept through Holland. The Library of Economics and Liberty writes, "The rage among the Dutch to possess was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade. ------------------------------------ In 2021 ₿itcoin swept the world reaching as far as El Salvador. The rage amongst the Tweeter crowd was so great that, every man and his dog neglected common sense and even with stimulus money being used to embark on the ₿itcoin ladder. ========================================================================================================================================== At this point; you probably hate this! I understand, majority of people only want opinions that mirror their own beliefs - trust me, I'm Bullish overall, I want a buy n hold strategy, but I cannot ignore factors out of my control. Regulation, Government stupidity and the world melting. ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Some simple logic. Back in March I posted simple roadmap; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5dfb4f92-16d7-4c6d-b199-817a71694bbb/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064504.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out For the die hard crypto fanatics; you won't like this idea one bit. This is coming from someone who was Bullish from 2011, so don't shoot it down without giving it a read either. You might have seen the film: Wall street, money never sleeps? Well, in this film Gekko shows a chart on the wall of his apartment; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bdb535f9-4d14-49b8-ac3f-e02fb43a060a/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064946.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out ====================================================================================================================================== Tulip conclusions; A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased bulbs on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their bulbs for a profit. But once prices started their decline, holders were forced to liquidate—to sell their bulbs at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process. Smithsonian Magazine indeed notes that "hundreds who, a few months previously had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few bulbs, which nobody would buy," even at prices one-fourth of what they paid. By 1638, tulip bulb prices had returned to from whence they came. --------------------------------- A large part of what will be seen as a shock horror, will be people thinking they have diamond hands until the wife finds out they have over leveraged a position that might not come back for (2 years) - unable to pay back loans on money borrowed to buy crypto. No poverty in the world, is of course the dream. ====================================================================================================================================== The Bubble Bursts By the end of 1637, the bubble had burst. Buyers announced they could not pay the high price previously agreed upon for bulbs and the market fell apart. While it was not a devastating occurrence for the nation's economy, it did undermine social expectations. The event destroyed relationships built on trust and people's willingness and ability to pay. ------------------------------- Prior to 2024; people announced they could not afford to hold such positions and the game mostly passed to the wealthy who could buy when the blood is running in the streets. This destroying the trust and belief, re-affirming the "rich get richer and the poor, get REKT" ===================================================================================================================================== Bullish or Bearish - I hope you enjoyed it. I've been lucky, planted my bulbs and waiting for the to flower. If the price comes back right I'll add to the position. Just be careful, use proper risk management and don't just buy the hype. Do some research for your own entries. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/986fb41f-fd4f-4cbd-98e5-615ebd98ef27/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064702.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out Inside the post (click the image above) you will see exact co-ordinates for the move and the current situation. See below; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/81d38dae-8149-4f8f-ab47-99be5944c8f5/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064826.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out ==================================================================================================================================== Some more on Tulips A single bulb could be worth as much as 4,000 or even 5,500 florins—since the 1630s florins were gold coins of uncertain weight and quality it is hard to make an accurate estimation of today's value in dollars, but Mackay does give us some points of reference: among other things, 4 tuns of beer cost 32 florins. That's around 1,008 gallons of beer, or 65 kegs of beer. A keg of Coors Light costs around $90, and so 4 tuns of beer ≈ $4,850 and 1 florin ≈ $150.4 That means that the best of tulips cost upwards of $750,000 in today's money (but with many bulbs trading in the $50,000 - $150,000 range). By 1636, the demand for the tulip trade was so large that regular marts for their sale were established on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam, in Rotterdam, Haarlem, and other towns. ------------------------------------------------------------ A single ₿itcoin could be worth as much as $67,000 which is hard to make an accurate estimation as it could be as little as $8,200 if you buy on Binance (and you have fast reflexes) Depending on where you drink beer, depends on how you can compare this. In Norway you can pay upward of $9, whereas In Antananarivo you can buy a beer for 6 cent. ==================================================================================================================================== It was at that time that professional traders ("stock jobbers") got in on the action, and everybody appeared to be making money simply by possessing some of these rare bulbs. Indeed, it seemed at the time that the price could only go up; that "the passion for tulips would last forever." People began buying tulips with leverage, using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford. But as quickly as it began, confidence was dashed. By the end of the year 1637, prices began to fall and never looked back. ----------------------------------------- At the time ETF's become available, it seems like the price can only go up. This Bull run will last forever, people start using leverage to buy ₿itcoin. Then - maybe a correction sets in. ==================================================================================================================================== Never happen I hear you say; I often get asked about Plan B and the model - which of course makes some sense. But people are only reading the words and not seeing the chart; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5cc6a7e7-8119-4f16-95e6-09476ec5f533/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064734.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ So where next and why? If we are seeing a monthly 3 being formed (cycle phase) then we will go into another decline. Collecting new found liquidity at the high. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e1cdb94c-971e-4941-9d91-27330a38c00c/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064922.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out Here's the outcome: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ff6667e2-5464-4c7f-8aee-c10191971c4f/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064537.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out This chart shows the Tulip Mania curve, it was insane - below, I have taken the story from Investopedia (word for word) and below each section I will edit it ever so slightly... First - here's a little background. What Was the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble? The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble, also known as 'tulipmania' was one of the most famous market bubbles and crashes of all time. It occurred in Holland during the early to mid-1600s when speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the height of the market, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary. Today, the tulipmania serves as a parable for the pitfalls that excessive greed and speculation can lead to. Here's the chart up close; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3e36dd45-85a8-431e-90ac-dd1531a23575/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064605.png Blog posts - You won't like this one BITCOIN - Make it stand out ================================================================================================================================================= History of the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market’s Bubble Tulips first appeared in Europe in the 16th century, arriving via the spice trading routes that lent a sense of exoticism to these imported flowers that looked like no other flower native to the continent. It is no surprise then that tulips became a luxury item destined for the gardens of the affluent: according to The Library of Economics and Liberty, "it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of tulips." -------------------------------- The first ₿itcoin appeared on the internet circa 2009; becoming a luxury item to own, a symbol of hope and freedom. it seem to mirror the quote exactly "a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a ₿itcoin wallet". ======================================================================== Following the affluent, the merchant middle classes of Dutch society (which did not exist in such developed form elsewhere in Europe at the time) sought to emulate their wealthier neighbors and, too, demanded tulips. Initially, it was a status item that was purchased for the very reason that it was expensive. -------------------------------- The middle class want affluence and wealth and see Crypto as a way to make money the easy way - thus driving up price, of such a status item. ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Cycles The market moves in cycles which can be broken down into waves, this can then be forecasted using tools such as Fibonacci to predict price in the future. In Elliott wave principle; You have cycles that fit into time. While exact time spans may vary, the customary order of degrees is reflected in the following sequence: Grand supercycle: multi-century Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years) Cycle: one year to several years, or even several decades under an Elliott Extension Primary: a few months to two years Intermediate: weeks to months Minor: weeks Minute: days Minuette: hours Subminuette: minutes So we would have to count the current move as a Cycle on the current count and a primary cycle inside of that (Monthly & weekly in essence) as in theory we are still inside a 1 move of anything larger. This is the current (perceived count); https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/let-this-be-a-warning-to-all-crypto-traders monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a11ebc8a-7daf-42a4-b230-b751bd09d11d/Screenshot+2024-07-24+124249.png Blog posts - Let this be a warning to all Crypto Traders. - Make it stand out In this lovely chart you can see that there was a blip in the Bitstamp BTC price. This sketchy wick is not visible on other exchange feeds, so it only affected Bitstamp traders as far as I know. It's not untypical behaviour for a Crypto Exchange, so I am not picking on Bitstamp alone. They are all kind of the same, and I don't think Bitstamp are bad, at all. I streamed this morning on this topic, but I want to cover it officially as I think it is very important and holds several lessons for all Crypto traders, new and old. www.tradingview.com/streams/PTGzIBivBw/ 1. Crypto Exchanges are not regulated. 2. Crypto Exchanges can (and do) sell information to whomever they want. This includes large traders who can bully markets around. 3. When you place a Stop Loss Order, this is visible to the exchange, and therefore it's visible to whomever they sell data. The potential for abuse is there and you know it. If you got caught in the evil wick, and you called Bitstamp and complained, how far would you expect to get with your complaint? There you were, buying the trendline touch for a few hundred $ potential profit and bang! Hopefully you were on the toilet and missed it. Let's do some logic: A. Trading in ANYTHING is hard to master. It's like a poker game against the world. You can win and you can lose, but the odds are you will be one of the 75% who lose money. Joining the 25% who don't lose takes time and knowledge. The Pro's know your psychology and they will take advantage of you as you flip back and forth cutting losses. B. Trading in FX and Commodities IS regulated. If you get a price spike that stops you out with your broker and you can show that other brokers didn't get the spike** and it was unreasonable, then you call your broker and explain, and ask to have your trade reinstated. They may try and stonewall you, but if you don't get anywhere and your case is good, you can tell them you will be writing to their regulator about them. Then they either have to explain to the regulator that their behaviour to their customer is in fact reasonable, or they re-instate your trade. Bear in mind that they expect to get 90% of your money anyway given enough time, and if you leave, they won't get it. Don't be afraid to carry out the threat. Make notes, screenshots etc. Write out the case and email it to your broker, saying it goes to the regulator if they don't behave. C. Trading in big Crypto (BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA etc) is very prone to hype and panic. The best TA (Technical Analysis) will struggle when you are dealing with Crypto. Much of it is young and only partially formed, TA-wise, and even the real price spikes are legendary. D. EXCEPTION: If you are trading alt-coins and you know your subject well, then buying these near lows can be very profitable. I am talking about the big coins where you are prone to price manipulation. Conclusion: The game is already very hard to master. If you enjoy trading, there are easier things to trade than Crypto. Here endeth the lesson. ** FX markets have rollover time each night, and spreads do widen a lot, but even so, if you get stopped out on a 50 pip spread pop when the normal spread widening is like 2 pips, then complain. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/do-you-know-about-dark-pools monthly 0.5 2024-07-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/eacae904-e121-48a2-87d2-c3637ec66fe6/Screenshot+2024-07-29+064236.png Blog posts - Do you know about Dark pools? - Make it stand out Dark pools of liquidity are private stock exchanges designed for trading large blocks of securities away from the public eye. They are called "dark" because of their complete lack of transparency, which benefits the big players but may leave the retail investor at a disadvantage. It all started with a need for big institutions to get their trades executed with as little market impact as possible quickly turned into a great money-spinner for banks and brokers. If they could match client orders in their own dark pools, they wouldn’t have to pay the stock exchange’s fees and perhaps they could themselves do a bit of buying and selling in their own pools and profit even more. With this realization, banks and brokers began to promote and encourage the use of their own dark pools to a wider clientele, including retail investors. The spread of dark pools has made them an integral part of the current market structure, and there is now no escape from dark pools. As Dark pools grew, in part due to the growth of high-frequency trading (HFT). Institutions now have an even stronger need to avoid what they felt was the predatory trading of high-frequency traders as the HFT crowd tried to sniff out large orders in the displayed markets. This resulted in more and more institutions traded in the dark. It brought about a problem for the dark pools, though. Who would be trading with the big institutions? To satisfy the demand for more liquidity, some dark pools began letting high-frequency traders into their pools so that more trades could be matched. How does this work inside crypto? Decentralized dark pools are used to shield large trades from causing price slippage in mainstream markets. Decentralized dark pools break down a cryptocurrency order into multiple fragments and match them back again using zero-knowledge proofs. See Investopedia for the full article on decentralized dark pools: www.investopedia.com...rading-platforms.asp As the cryptocurrency ecosystem is still evolving and the dearth of large institutional investors and liquidity in the space means that decentralized dark pool trades have a fairly limited impact on prices and trading in mainstream crypto markets. But with various methods of operating, things are not always what they seem. UK exchange Kraken was the first to market in 2016 with an Ethereum dark pool. CEO Jesse Powell noted: “Dark Pool trading allows for orders to be placed out of sight so that traders can make large buy or sell orders (minimum of 50 bitcoin or 2,500 ether) without revealing their sentiment to other traders. Advantages include reduced market impact and better price for large blocks.” Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/a-technique-from-1202-really monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0388ad24-368c-43a7-97d2-fe60f4e5ecbc/Screenshot+2024-07-24+125634.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bff226fa-34df-4b12-830e-c7bcb6cad8de/Screenshot+2024-07-24+125656.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Who was Fibonacci? Fibonacci (1170 – c. 1240–50), also known as Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo of Pisa, or Leonardo Bigollo Pisano was an Italian mathematician from the Republic of Pisa, considered to be "the most talented Western mathematician of the Middle Ages". Fibonacci popularized the Hindu–Arabic numeral system in the Western world primarily through his composition in 1202 of Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation). He also introduced Europe to the sequence of Fibonacci numbers, which he used as an example in Liber Abaci. You may have seen this? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bdc25d2d-5516-437a-9e77-5c7d9e77b43a/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130314.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Not telling you this is what you should do, it’s just one method some do use. Obviously, you could increase the stop and put it under A instead. Difference between Retracement and Extensions? The data you gather by assessing the pullback becomes valuable when looking for potential targets, so whilst we used 2 touch points (A & B) for getting the retracement level, the most accurate extension forecasting tool would be to use all 3 (A, B and C). Although it can also be done by using only A and B as well, It’s another one of those not so clear rules. Whilst the retracement tool gives us the pullback, the extension will give us some target areas. Let’s start with the simple (not my preferred) method; This is known as the extensions – 2 points (A, B) drag the curser from A to B and click and then back to A and click off. With this method you will notice in your back-testing those areas of interest will often be at the 61.8% of the A to B move. This means if A + B = 100, then the target would be around 161-2. Also, the 100% of the A-B move giving a target example of 200 and lastly the 1.618 level. Giving a target of 261-2 level. Again, no hard fast rule. This is just something seen over and over again. Expansion levels To start with go from A to B with the extension tool and pullback to C and click off. Assume you are using @TradingView https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/89c2d2c7-f1e2-4bdb-9117-8288deac7086/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130433.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out In this image above we use the same A point as a starting point, B becomes the 1 and 2 becomes the C. We can then work the Fibonacci extension & expansion levels to determine where 3 is likely to go. And then we can use the retracement for the pullback for (4) as well as new extensions for the projection of the 5th wave. A few months back, I wrote an article here on tradingview on the psychology on the charts, it’s worth highlighting that here. Click here to view the article Nothing is 100% certain, but using these methods will help give you a better understanding of waves and swings, logic for pullbacks and reason for extension levels. I hope this helps someone out here! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e376882f-b4fc-4388-8984-de8d4d9c401e/Screenshot+2024-07-24+125814.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out However, you are probably more familiar with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels. It’s all based on the same logic. Fibonacci numbers appear unexpectedly often in mathematics, so much so that there is an entire journal dedicated to their study, the Fibonacci Quarterly. Applications of Fibonacci numbers include computer algorithms such as the Fibonacci search technique and the Fibonacci heap data structure, and graphs called Fibonacci cubes used for interconnecting parallel and distributed systems. They also appear in biological settings, such as branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the fruit sprouts of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern, and the arrangement of a pine cone's bracts. Look at the image above again, of Fibonacci in nature! So what? The fact that these numbers appear in nature, it has clearly been adopted in art and architecture – this is due to the human desire for pattern recognition. It’s built into our DNA, the fact that we as a collective want to identify such patterns, will in fact drive charts. I have written articles on Elliott Waves - which again is quite possibly one of the biggest use cases for Fibonacci, definitely an easy way to see the powers at work. Here’s a link to one such article: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/B4FcC4wa-Simplified-Elliott-It-can-be-confusing/ How to use Them? If you have been trading for some time you are most likely familiar with Fibonacci techniques, if you are new, here is some basic logic to get you started. As mentioned above there are several tools for Fibonacci, as a new trader I would suggest only looking at extensions and retracements to start you off. Retracement These levels often work well as support and resistance, you will find opportunities to enter on pullbacks (retracements) against the overall trend. Common levels here are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% (although it’s not technically a real fib level, another topic for another time) then of course the 61.8% and the 78.6%. How to draw these on the chart – you are looking for 3 points let’s assume A,B & C. You are looking for A to be at the start of your trend. Often this will be a swing low or high. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/314958d7-d4df-4652-9829-5f727d9525d9/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130119.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Let’s assume we are looking at an uptrend and we want to see the pullback. A would be placed here as above. The next step is to use the extension tool and click A and drag to point B as below: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/742667e0-eea2-4e14-b38e-b8aa382a7a0e/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130221.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Now we have a move A to B we can start to look for areas of interest, in this example we can see the pullback was to the 38.2% level. Some people are critical on the levels, for me I like it to tag the level and if it goes a little deeper then I still like it, if it doesn’t tag the level I would round it down to the lower level. Meaning if it fails at say 37.9% I would like to still think of it as only the 23,6% fib level. But there is no hard and fast rule on this. Now this gives me A and B with a 38% pullback for C. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2d1da2d8-873f-4738-b7f8-6c24d1186f82/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130246.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out One way to trade using this could be a simple Buy at the break of B with a stop “Below” C https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5ae069e6-fd5f-4c23-bf84-5b8626beada6/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130341.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Much like the Extension you will notice similar characteristics of the moves up (in this example of the uptrend) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e5273253-12c9-46c6-b739-09551693cbc2/Screenshot+2024-07-24+125736.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out This is what’s called the Golden ratio. I am not looking to go into depth on Fibonacci use cases, spirals, fans, arcs, circles, wedges and channels. However, it was important to mention so you can go away and do your own research on Fibonacci beyond this “welcome to” post. Why is this useful for trading? The Fibonacci sequence is quite possibly the most used tool in trading stocks, Forex, Commodities and even crypto. In mathematics, the Fibonacci numbers work so that each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fff8d309-3f77-4218-a874-7586b5285988/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130151.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out and the pullback level: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/aed05163-320e-4e32-b42b-db3616e69f44/Screenshot+2024-07-24+130413.png Blog posts - A technique from 1202 - Really? - Make it stand out Something interesting I mentioned above this is a great tool to use alongside Elliott Waves, here’s an example of how this works and can fit into the charts. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/un-common-sense monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4ac63919-e6ca-4321-b4ee-0687a4266d17/Screenshot+2024-07-24+124806.png Blog posts - Un-Common Sense... - Make it stand out On the psychology side: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSD/pBdzDRTu-Market-moves-and-it-s-Psychology/ https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5d4ff266-9dd0-477d-ab51-babc9f90fe58/Screenshot+2024-07-24+124718.png Blog posts - Un-Common Sense... - Make it stand out What to do about it? 1. Do you use wide stops? If so, you’re just making the brokers rich and guaranteeing losses on your part. After all, the market always trades towards the stops. How else will it shake out all the weak players before making the real move? Using the right techniques, you can learn to enter and manage your risk a whole lot better. Many “gurus” will be teaching methods that most retail traders fall for, this is another machine for making money off dumb money. I have seen these educators talk about not using stops or trading standard off the shelf tools. You ever hear some guru say "The price is about to break support off the back of a hanging man, RSI is overbought and price broke out of the Bollinger band channel. It has also crossed under the 21-week EMA" (or some other shait like this), just remember that the price doesn't care, it'll go wherever the composite man needs it to go... 2. Statistics show there are certain times to trade various chart formations, stochastic are great in ranging markets and RSI are better suited for trending conditions. All of the dumb money are busy trading RSI in range bound markets as it’s the only tool they know how to use. Knowing when to use tools will go a long way – you get to a point of not really needing them, but until then acquire some more tools for the tool-box. A screwdriver is no good for hammering in a nail. 3. Do you know when to reverse your position? Since the market loves to catch everyone going the wrong way, this is a great and highly profitable tactic, but you have to know how and when to do it. I had a ton of people tell me how wrong I was on the call made in March for BTC – perma bulls, in an exhausted market. Glad to say my 30k call for the drop from 62,500 was on point. Over shot by 2k, but what’s that among friends? (See rocket post, in the related ideas) You have to work the market both ways, or at least learn to sit out during the corrective phases. They do happen from time to time! 4. Making a plan – people are busy trying to catch the bottom, this is reminiscent of that lego batman scene “first time” after several attempts of calling the bottom. They will be right at some point. The number of posts on TradingView calling the BTC spring in the most recent drop – scary. When building a plan, it should be focused on risk management and a systematic approach for both entries and exit. I would much rather catch 60-80% of the swing with high probability, than try to obtain the full A to B move with little possibility. 5. I encourage the traders I mentor to “Trade less. Earn more.” You need to learn that its better to make a bit with 95% certainty than to try to make 100% with only a 10% chance of hitting the home run! And in this way you keep your liquidity costs low and add to your earnings at the end of the year. If you’re looking to trade crypto – take a look at this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TRXBTC/gVuHsAWz-How-to-assess-an-altcoin/ https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/75260fe5-eeea-4c5a-a3ff-159624576780/Screenshot+2024-07-24+125009.png Blog posts - Un-Common Sense... - Make it stand out And finally here’s the logic for why the cycles can last a “little longer” – see yesterday’s stream! www.tradingview.com/...hyEYE7Qy7qyTxt1lQhw/ https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b59ec255-8e4f-4301-b21d-55025ed2802a/Screenshot+2024-07-24+124618.png Blog posts - Un-Common Sense... - Make it stand out Think of the ‘business model’ of the exchanges and brokers; many have built their empires on this one simple rule – they are happy to give leveraged accounts to people as they know it’s only ‘dumb money’ that take them up on the offer, pushing people into the funnel is a repetitive cycle. Many brokers offer commission to introducers for what’s known as “FTD’s” first time deposits. Some offer introducers commission on spreads. They know all too well; the dumb money pouring in is the fuel for the machine. Humans are naturally designed to lose; we have the fear of being hurt and the welcoming of pleasure, this goes on to create more endorphins. So, when we see a red P&L or open position, we naturally want it green so we leave the losses run. On the HOPE of it coming back. But when we are green, we cut the profits for the FEAR of it turning red. Again, step back and have a think about this point. Now combine what I have just said above; Fear + Greed = Stupidity and smart money are here to make you broke, as well as the fact that exchanges have based their business off the 90-90-90 rule. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/23110813-389f-461f-ace9-568bc05645c5/Screenshot+2024-07-24+124451.png Blog posts - Un-Common Sense... - Make it stand out I have recently recorded a video titled “Fear + Greed = Stupidity” I would say that lack of patience is the number one problem of traders who have come to me for mentoring or education over the years doing this. There is a term used in the industry known as the 90-90-90 rule; 90% of traders, lose 90% of their money in 90 days. Just think about that for a second! There are two types of money, 'smart money' and 'dumb money'. You, 'retail' traders are 'dumb money'. The investment banks and institutions consider themselves the 'smart money'. Their job is only to move the dumb money into the pockets of the smart money, and they do this every day, all day long. (making the rich richer & the poor ...............well broke). It amazes me, that it takes several years to go through university for many professions, yet the assumption is that you can work part time as a trader (after the 9-5) and come and dominate in crypto or FX – and we wonder why 90% lose 90% of their money in 90 days… In order to make money in the markets, you need liquidity. The 'dumb money' provides the liquidity that the 'smart money' uses to get in and out of trades. Trading is a zero-sum game, every single penny you make is because some other poor soul lost it. For every buyer there's a seller and vice-versa (in an efficient liquid market). Have a read of this little parable by @Paul_Varcoe https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ffFamNi0-The-Parable-of-the-Shiny-Object/ https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/do-you-know-the-inside-of-the-candle monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d520cd84-6874-416b-bc43-105c4318a83a/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122508.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out A typical candle will have an Open, High, Low, Close. You will see these referred to in some text, articles and indicators as O,H,L,C Below is the structure of both a Bullish (Green) & Bearish (Red) Candle. The cycle shown below, is the action within a candle, think about this – the candle opens at say 100, it dips to 95 and starts gaining ground to 120, before dropping a little to 115 and closing there. Why is this important? Think of it like a football (soccer) match – the game starts and plays out during a set time, much like the candle – and at the end we have a score. The actions in the match tell the story, but it’s the end result that counts. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b0d1410b-2a71-481a-adc1-02db1235c2da/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122438.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c7168a4b-e70c-4d95-8eaf-528aaf10be6e/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122610.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out So, what is the story? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0181d6c2-c9b6-477f-9b53-a98f25ac0705/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122912.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURJPY/76KSElbz-Volume-Profiles-on-TradingView/ If you are new to @TradingView Or a new trader, there is a pretty useful feature called volume profiles - available with paid membership of Tradingview. This is a quick introduction to and not a full lesson on how to use, strategies or techniques (will post one if there is interest for that). TradingView's own definition of Volume profile Volume Profile is an advanced charting study that displays trading activity over a specified time period at specified price levels. The study (accounting for user defined parameters such as number of rows and time period) plots a histogram on the chart meant to reveal dominant and/or significant price levels based on volume. Essentially, Volume Profile takes the total volume traded at a specific price level during the specified time period and divides the total volume into either buy volume or sell volume and then makes that information easily visible to the trader. Source - www.tradingview.com/...2040-volume-profile/ https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d2869964-ae79-4272-8b85-820c7483ed91/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122637.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out The middle of the candle known as the body is equal to the spread and gives a clue as to the sentiment of this particular candle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dc32690a-7660-4e13-8ed7-3c8492163176/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122724.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out Although the body (spread) is small this image shows a different type of strength, well actually it is more weakness to the upside than downside strength. The market has tried to push higher and failed. Wicks in some more detail: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a12a76fb-ab84-4488-a446-84bdba04029c/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122830.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out This feature has several scripts for Doji, Engulfing, Hammers, Spinning tops and many more. This was only a quick dive into candlesticks – nothing major and not much depth, but as usual, I hope this helps even with the appreciation of what a candle represents. Some additional educational posts: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/63589ed4-bb4f-4f88-9442-7bc967790f35/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122802.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out Inside the wick you can see effort with lack of reward. Shown in the image above, this can be exaggerated and emphasised if accompanied by a small body or spread. Especially in the other direction. By this I mean a large wick on the top and then the bar closing red would have emphasis on bearish sentiment – however, a small red body would show little buying interest but no real intent to the downside. The candles can tell a story, often on their own. However various formations give more detail and can be used to identify events prior to a major move. This is especially powerful when used with some other methods, that can zone in on areas of interest. Did you know? Inside @TradingView indicator tab; there is a sub section for candlestick patterns – to automate the recognition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6cde502b-e7d9-4e74-a1b7-152346188ed7/Screenshot+2024-07-24+122702.png Blog posts - Do you know the inside of the candle? - Make it stand out Sentiment A wide spread gives the indication of strong sentiment, of course if the candle is red with a long body it would be strong bearish sentiment. If the body is narrow – it suggests a weak bias overall. Do the wicks matter? – well yes, of course. They tell another story, the wick can give you the equivalent of the match highlights – how much time/effort was committed in the oppositions half. If you think of it still as a sports match. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/a-welcome-to-pinescript-coding-part-2 monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/310aad77-74b5-43f7-9a86-5a0de47dd4a6/Screenshot+2024-07-24+121959.png Blog posts - A "Welcome to" Pinescript coding, Part 2 - Make it stand out https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/0h8V5Txj-A-Welcome-to-Pinescript-coding-Part-2/ I have built on my partner @Mayfair's_Ventures simple intro to Pine Script on @TradingView & @PineCoders I have added some labels and shown how to use crossover and crossunder. If you liked the first one, then watch this to develop your skills! https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/a-welcome-to-pinescript-coding monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c88458e8-9c53-4ef8-9106-08c316e1c4f0/Screenshot+2024-07-24+115436.png Blog posts - A "Welcome to" Pinescript coding - Make it stand out https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/sc3EbWJp-A-Welcome-to-Pinescript-coding/ This simple idea is an intro to @TradingView & @PineCoders Nothing fancy or complex, if you are already coding - you can skip this. simple MA build walk through & adding a second MA. If you want to get into coding, then here's the basic introduction. FYI - I am not a coder, 21 years trading experience and know a bit about the instruments - but new to actual coding, especially in Pine. Hope it helps someone! https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/the-great-men-of-the-trading-world monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bef9fa98-8f97-4102-8e00-dbf7699dfc5e/Screenshot+2024-07-24+114937.png Blog posts - The Great men of the trading world - Make it stand out ============================================================================================================================= Richard Wyckoff This method has had a lot of popularity recently on social media and in @TradingView Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. He is considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street, which, at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline. From his position, Wyckoff observed numerous retail investors being repeatedly fleeced. Consequently, he dedicated himself to instructing the public about “the real rules of the game” as played by the large interests, or “smart money.” In the 1930s, he founded a school which would later become the Stock Market Institute. The school's central offering was a course that integrated the concepts that Wyckoff had learned about how to identify large operators' accumulation and distribution of stock with how to take positions in harmony with these big players. His time-tested insights are as valid today as they were when first articulated. Although it seems complex – the logic still holds strong and has been seen even in recent Bitcoin moves. (click article – below) to see the types of Schematics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/272c85f3-4317-49d9-8925-328a504c78eb/Screenshot+2024-07-24+115053.png Blog posts - The Great men of the trading world - Make it stand out Gann said “Time is more important than price. When time is up price will reverse.” ===================================================================================================================== Another great man worth a mention, purely on these quotes If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking. Benjamin Franklin Wyckoff would call this composite man logic! Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you. Benjamin Franklin And this is how I feel the crypto market is currently looking. Any others you think should be on the list, mention in comments and why? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d24877cc-45a9-4f6f-a732-268f233840e2/Screenshot+2024-07-24+114821.png Blog posts - The Great men of the trading world - Make it stand out As a trader of over 20 years, there has been a lot of trial and error. A lot of learning, it’s still continuing! I wanted to share some interesting pointers with the community; People see charts really look deeper than that. I regard a couple of men in trading terms as the “Greats” Would there be others you consider? Why? Let’s start – the only order is the age (timestamp) rather than preference to their work. Charles Henry Dow (November 6, 1851 – December 4, 1902) was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company. Little known fact, Dow also co-founded The Wall Street Journal, which has become one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. This guy has his own chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fe7acb84-7139-4f1b-877b-c0d5b1d24eb9/Screenshot+2024-07-24+114900.png Blog posts - The Great men of the trading world - Make it stand out He developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis. Dow theory explained The Dow theory is based on the analysis of maximum and minimum market fluctuations to make accurate predictions on the direction of the market. According to the Dow theory, the importance of these upward and downward movements is their position in relation to previous fluctuations. This method teaches investors to read a trading chart and to better understand what is happening with any asset at any given moment. With this simple analysis, even the most inexperienced can identify the context in which a financial instrument is evolving. Furthermore, Charles Dow supported the common belief among all traders and technical analysts that an asset price and its resulting movements on a trading chart already have all necessary information already available and forecasted in order to make accurate predictions. Based on his theory, he created the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now known as Transportation Index), which were originally developed for the Wall Street Journal. Charles Dow created these stock indices as he believed that they would provide an accurate reflection of the economic and financial conditions of companies in two major economic sectors: the industrial and the railway (transportation) sectors. ------------------------------------------------ This is another interesting topic in it’s own right, but not for this article. “Pride of opinion has been responsible for the downfall of more men on Wall Street than any other factor.” Charles Dow. ------------------------------------------------ Many of our modern techniques fit into Dow theory in some way, shape or form and most people do not realise this. ===================================================================================================================================== R.N Elliott – Elliott waves to most Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948) was an American accountant and author, whose study of stock market data led him to develop the Wave Principle, a form of technical analysis that identifies trends in the financial markets. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves. Elliott Said “The forces that cause market trends have their origin in nature and human behaviour” as well as “Forces travel in waves, as demonstrated by Galileo, newton and other scientists.” -------------------------------------------- Wave Theory In the early 1930s, Elliott began his systematic study of seventy-five years of stock market data, including index charts with increments ranging from yearly to half-hourly. In1938, he detailed the results of his studies by publishing his third book, The Wave Principle. Elliott stated that, while stock market prices may appear random and unpredictable, they actually follow predictable, natural laws and can be measured and forecast using Fibonacci numbers. Soon after the publication of The Wave Principle, Financial World magazine commissioned Elliott to write twelve articles (under the same title as his book) describing his new method of market forecasting. In the early 1940s, Elliott expanded his theory to apply to all collective human behaviors. His final major work was his most comprehensive: Nature's Law –The Secret of the Universe published in June, 1946, two years before he died. In the years after Elliott's death, other practitioners (including Charles Collins, Hamilton Bolton, Richard Russell and A.J. Frost) continued to use the wave principle and provide forecasts to investors. Frost and Robert Prechter wrote Elliott Wave Principle, published in 1978 (Prechter had come across Elliott's works while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch; his prominence as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s helped bring Elliott's wave principle its greatest exposure up to that time). I wrote a few months back an article on the application of Elliott (Click the image for the link.) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/078f49c4-c995-4d65-bf13-1a91f88fae1a/Screenshot+2024-07-24+115017.png Blog posts - The Great men of the trading world - Make it stand out --------------------------------------------- Wyckoff said “Successful tape reading is a study of Force; it requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side.” ================================================================================================================ WD Gann William Delbert Gann (June 6, 1878 – June 18, 1955) or WD Gann, was a finance trader who developed the technical analysis methods like the Gann angles and the Master Charts, where the latter is a collective name for his various tools like the Spiral Chart (also called the Square of Nine), the Hexagon Chart, and the Circle of 360 Gann market forecasting methods are purportedly based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics. Opinions are sharply divided on the value and relevance of his work. Gann authored a number of books and courses on shares and commodities trading. There are several techniques using Gann methodology; Here’s one on Gann Fans https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/4fm4opfyb03ox10lsigcx30yjwsgjv monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9f23b34e-2841-4796-81a0-4d9b80b3ab2f/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093417.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out I only covered the point of how the distribution phase was playing out in Bitcoin. In this post, I will share some additional depth - for those of you already familiar with Wyckoff techniques you already have this. So we are not covering here (volume, how to identify or any of the more advanced stuff or terms like creeks or mark-ups and downs) Just another simple intro to the basics & a step up from post one. 4 Major types of schematics The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are a major part of Wyckoff’s work, These schematics are broken down into 2 patterns for accumulation and 2 for distribution. These sections are then divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events - we will cover this later. Distribution schematics So in the previous post & it was fortuitous that Bitcoin was a near textbook example of the distribution schematic #1. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e3903d7f-c104-4a41-8aa2-8381180d700c/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093611.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out And #2 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9882d1af-9b4c-4523-b39d-99ba9bffe566/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093517.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out The second type of distribution schematic looks like this; https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7840707f-5c04-41b0-bb40-e49c3667216b/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093634.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out ====================================================================================================================================== Key; The first phase or ways to identify a schematic forming is with what is called a PS (Accumulation) or PSY (distribution) - this is basically the change of character as the trend moves towards a schematic; Preliminary Support (PS) and Preliminary Supply (PSY). The first significant reaction that occurs after a prolonged rally that indicates budding supply showing up. You then have a BC or SC - buyer climax / sellers Climax; the obvious BC in an uptrend suggesting institutional operators cashing out. and the inverse with the SC. The next major event is the AR - Automatic reaction (rally) - The reaction that occurs after a Buying Climax. It occurs without previous preparation, hence the word “automatic.” and in layman terms it's the exit of large positions after a climax (SC and BC) event. ST next - this is a second test (ST) A name given by Wyckoff to the reaction following Automatic Rally, (or rally following the Automatic reaction.) If that test is associated with small range and light volume — it increases the likelihood that the previous trend is over. Next a move down if it is accumulation would be a SOW - this is "Sign of Weakness" and inverse we have SOS "Sign of strength" In distribution - you then have two major differences over the accumulation schematic; UT = Up Thrust and a UTAD = UP Thrust after Distribution. For distribution you have a spring, think of this like the last drop before moving up rapidly out of a schematic on the Bullish side. You then have "Test" phases usually of the support and resistance levels (zones) created by the schematic as shown in the images above. And finally you have LPSY for distribution Last Point of Supply - A point at the end of the process of distribution where the Composite Man (Large operators) recognizes that demand forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking down prices. Last Point of Support (LPS) which is the accumulation equivalent - A point at the end of the process of accumulation where the large operators recognizes that supply forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking up prices. This is still only the basics, not looking at phases or volume or anything else yet. It's worth going away and studying this in a little more detail to get familiar with the concepts and terminology and in the next post I will cover the phases. ======================================================================================================================================= I know a lot of you readers are here purely for the crypto/BTC calls made - and another logical reason we are still liking a slow move down at this level, comes in the current DXY situation. See this post below as to the current situation there. (the relevance might be small - But understanding the forces at work, with DXY to BTC. Is actually useful). Shorter term strength = will aid BTC slow moves. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0d6cd641-ff98-46f7-9bde-a1e8e335dc29/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093700.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/de9c5535-273d-425e-b66d-e1138729c12b/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093544.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out As you can see, there are a lot of similarities & it can be confusing, but this is where it's best to dig deeper into the concept, why volume plays a big part in Wyckoff techniques and gain an understanding of the naming convention for each of the events inside. ** We have a naming convention key below ** Accumulation As well as distribution you also have accumulation and this also has 2 (major) schematics; #1 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0e11b378-8886-40dc-80ca-0f74476c9062/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093344.png Blog posts - Wyckoff Basics part 2 - Make it stand out After my last educational wyckoff post - I had a lot of comments, questions and so on. The idea was to post the basics and show the concept - there has been a lot of the overlay, breakdown and other people jumping on this. It was a move we called on the 18th of March (see the "they blew up the rocket" post). In terms of some simple education, Wyckoff is deep and possibly too deep for newer traders. What I was trying to highlight was the existence of such techniques. In part one; https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/wyckoff-basics-explained monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f57a21bb-9a79-49ab-a3b3-1328a7d648b1/Screenshot+2024-07-24+094115.png Blog posts - Wyckoff basics explained - Make it stand out The logic can easily be assessed and broken down into small parts, step by step. And therefore, if it's something we can program. It is something you can learn. Here is the free link to the other Wyckoff Schematics - drive.google.com/dri...mrUUCdqxFCGpWhg8urQv Hope you enjoyed this short intro to Wyckoff - see the previous video posts for live Wyckoff overlay examples. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0b6ae2b9-c28a-44ad-8d8f-d0682f4e7812/Screenshot+2024-07-24+094013.png Blog posts - Wyckoff basics explained - Make it stand out This relates to one of 4 (master patterns)this particular known as distribution schematic 1. **For the others you can see in the PDF linked below;** Phases - Simplified In this distribution schematic example (literally from Wednesday's BTC exit of the range) you will be able to identify a Buyers Climax (BC) from here, the assumption is that the composite man (strong hand operators) are taking profits - Money flow leaving, this causes an Automatic Reaction (AR). Now many retail traders will assume, this is another pullback (failing to identify the BC) if their on a very small time frame (and many retail traders are operating on lower time frames) then the assumption would be "buy the dip" and for a little while they are correct, we often see this (ST) move up but, this usually fails to go higher than the (BC). Composite man is in control This game is what many retail traders refer to as "Market Manipulation" - whilst the reality is, there is an identifiable pattern. Human beings are greedy, fearful and outright stupid at times. This allows for the perfect schematic to play itself out as the composite man accumulated or in the Bitcoin move Distribute. Here's an example from an older post I did walking through the psychology on a chart. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c16f56ae-555f-47f0-b9e9-18cab413bfbf/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093944.png Blog posts - Wyckoff basics explained - Make it stand out Going back to the 18th of March where we called the Buyers Climax top for Bitcoin's "Wyckoff" Distribution phase. We have had a lot of questions regarding the technique. It's a very difficult one to put into only one post - but to understand Wyckoff methodology you need to first APPRECIATE what Wyckoff is about. History Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was an American stock market investor, and the founder and onetime editor of the Magazine of Wall Street. Wyckoff implemented his methods of technical analysis of the financial markets (the study of charts showing movements of stock-prices and other data). He grew his wealth such that he eventually owned nine and a half acres and a mansion next door to the Hamptons estate of General Motors president Alfred Sloan in Great Neck, New York. As Wyckoff became wealthier, he also became altruistic about the public's Wall Street experience. He turned his attention and passion to education, teaching, and in publishing exposes such as “Bucket Shops and How to Avoid Them”, which were run in New York's The Saturday Evening Post starting in 1922. Jump forward - too much detail for one post to cover. Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. He believed he had analyzed and determined where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He emphasized the placement of stop-losses at all times, the importance of controlling the risk of any particular trade. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). The Wyckoff technique may provide some insight as to how and why professional interests buy and sell securities, while evolving and scaling their market campaigns with concepts such as the "Composite Operator". Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the composite operator. Simply, Wyckoff felt that an experienced judge of the market should regard larger market trends as the expression of a single mind. He felt that it was an important psychological and tactical advantage to stay in harmony with this omnipotent player. Wyckoff believed investors would be better prepared to grow their portfolios and net worth by following in his footsteps. The LOGIC Applying this concept in a chart you can identify market phases and cycles - here's the snapshot from a daily BTC move. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/25210f00-1d68-4329-85c2-d70b643f7255/Screenshot+2024-07-24+094035.png Blog posts - Wyckoff basics explained - Make it stand out You will see how price action in inextricably linked with the moves caused by the players "you & me" in the market. Later phases of this structure The general idea is for the composite man to accumulate or distribute to obtain a better position for himself, taking the market one way and the other. Often at times, retail will do the last couple of steps among themselves. Although the strong hands are often hedging positions, it is not always required to have their participation as the phases move on inside the structure. As we see a Sign Of Weakness (SOW) - the retail traders would have now seen a lower high and a lower low (logic) However from the (SOW) we move almost impulsively to the Upthrust (UT) the "bulltrap" to many newer traders. At this stage of the post, you might be starting to see inside how the manipulation works? Next phase Range bound - in true Wyckoff terms this region inside the schematic is known as phase B. We chop up and down and eventually create a new higher high. Again in Bitcoin's case we see the ATH. Known as the (UTAD) to Wyckoffian's - Up Thrust After Distribution. This is the climax and from here we see the price breaking down until we anticipate the exit of the range. On @TradingView We have also developed a pretty cool indicator to use one buy and one sell for Wyckoff schematics in particular. You can see how it fits inside the schematic. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/why-do-people-invest-in-crypto monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/8df8798e-5c8a-4b9f-bfef-bcff1d1beae5/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093036.png Blog posts - Why do People Invest in Crypto? - Make it stand out Such people are influenced by stories of other regular people who became rich by investing in Crypto & are desperate to join the club. Just like any profession or industry, if you want to become an expert. You need to dedicate the time, do the homework, learn the ropes. If you make it overnight, it does not mean you’re a good trader, it means you got lucky. People like Elon Musk can afford a paper loss (drawdown) and still sleep at night, when your account is over-leveraged, and you have no clue of the next move, it will cause sleepless nights for many coming to crypto hoping to strike gold. And that is the point for most new investors, traders, speculators – the gamble is the thrill on the hope of hitting it big. Take it easy, investing should be for the long run - ask any professional trader, fortunes can be made and lost in a day. The trick is staying in the game... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0d39b63f-6210-4d49-ae6e-1c0c063d2259/Screenshot+2024-07-24+093004.png Blog posts - Why do People Invest in Crypto? - Make it stand out Here's a little info on the reasons for investing and the types of people in investing crypto currently. Crypto was first introduced in the year 2009, in the wake of the global financial crisis, as a way for people to control their own money rather than the banks and the government. So, this is the first perception, humans want to feel in control, they desire ownership. Owning a slice of the financial market is how our brains compute owning crypto. Consciously or unconsciously, we are all the same. At first, many people were skeptical regarding whether to invest in crypto at all. The whole sector was considered highly volatile and faced considerable fluctuations in prices. And still does to this day, however, some countries like Australia and Switzerland have smoothed the way for investment in cryptocurrency by introducing laws and regulations to make payments through crypto easier for day-to-day use. The issue is some others have been actively trying to ban and stall them. China, India, and Saudi Arabia are prominent among countries where cryptocurrency trading is prohibited or where payments cannot be made using cryptocurrency. This will slow the overall market growth as crypto needs mass adoption to thrive and mass adoption requires a global use case. In terms of a use case - Bitcoin’s user base has increased from 120,000 users in 2013 to 45 million users as of 2020. So, we can clearly see the interest. Most people still see Crypto as fraud – it really does not help with activities in the market, scam artists operating amongst the genuine projects, you only need one fly in the ointment as they say. Ok so, the types of people who either use, trade, or invest in Crypto are; 1) The faithful – early adopters and believers of the tech, no different to people wanting to save the planet buying solar panels for the home, or electric cars. 2) The People who are scared for the economy, Government, and banks are evil. Owning our own slice of pie makes sense. (have you ever thought, how it’s odd why the NSA can’t crack where it originated from? To make the argument more interesting we are talking about an immutable ledger-based technology.) 3) Developing countries – where the lack of trust in the government out ways bar room moaning, countries such as Nigeria and Columbia are amongst the list of countries where Bitcoin trading is the highest. 4) The Cool kids – owning crypto is the new done thing. Ask Paris Hilton or Elon Musk. 5) Large-cap investors; this one is interesting for me. Most High-net-worth individuals who entrust money managers to make investment decisions now want exposure to crypto. The issue is, it’s all old money (well mostly) and the money managers are still 30 years behind on average. So for these guys, it’s either Buzzword-Bingo or entry to BTC as that is the one that looks less risky. 6) The get rich quickers – due to the postman telling them he knows a guy who got rich trading crypto, jump in and buy – usually with crazy leverage and often at market peaks. If it was a pyramid scam, these are the guys you find at the bottom. Often losing out and late to the party, jumping on the promise of getting rich as it beat the 9-5 job. The crypto volatility is the appeal to most humans, it’s appealing to get a sense of thrill. People have likened the feel of investing in the crypto market to being in Vegas. s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/h/hwnYC5hd.png Las Vegas was settled in 1905 and officially incorporated in 1911. At the close of the 20th century, it was the most populated American city founded within that century (a similar distinction was earned by Chicago in the 19th century). Population growth has accelerated since the 1960s, and between 1990 and 2000 the population nearly doubled, increasing by 85.2%. Rapid growth has continued into the 21st century, and according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. In Vegas, there is always something happening, unlike the stock market. Then you have the young people, especially those who like playing video games, find the same adrenaline rush in crypto as they do, playing the latest COD game (Call of Duty, for those of you not up on gaming). They are attracted to high-risk investments makes perfect sense. Possibly as it’s a virtual feel to it also??? Back to Vegas - During the 1960s, corporations and business tycoons such as Howard Hughes were building and buying hotel-casino properties. Gambling was referred to as "gaming", which transitioned it into a legitimate business. Much like crypto becoming mainstream. Ask yourself these couple of questions, who controls Vegas? Who is often getting rich in Vegas? Who often loses at the tables? A lot of new “traders” wish to hit it big, just like the tables in Vegas. These people have invested whatever savings they had from other sources into crypto & are hoping the value will eventually rise, and their over-leveraged positions won’t get margin called. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/how-to-assess-an-altcoineducation monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/13fa913c-1e90-4c61-aaa1-b115fc64cdb9/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091813.png Blog posts - How to assess an altcoin - Make it stand out As for Technical analysis, some expertise can be inherited from the legacy financial markets. Many new crypto traders use the same technical indicators seen in Forex, stocks, and commodities trading. You often see tools such as the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands which seek to predict market behavior, the issue with this is the lack of data mentioned above. Yet, these technical analysis tools are also extremely popular in the cryptocurrency space. Slightly harder to read a moving average when the price is in a 90-degree move up. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e0a75bae-0297-479d-a12f-99bebd5e684b/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091835.png Blog posts - How to assess an altcoin - Make it stand out With cryptocurrency fundamental analysis, though the approach is similar to that used in legacy markets, you can’t really use tried-and-tested tools to assess crypto assets. To conduct a proper analysis, what we need is to understand where they (the company/Coin) derive value from. ==================================================================================================================================== For you newer traders… “What is fundamental analysis (FA)?” Fundamental analysis (FA) is an approach used by investors and traders to establish the "intrinsic value" of an asset or business or in this case, crypto. By looking at a number of internal and external factors, their main goal is to determine whether said asset or business is overvalued or undervalued. They can then leverage that information to strategically enter or exit positions. The goal of this article is not to dive into the methods of FA as a whole, rather just to highlight where you should begin. ==================================================================================================================================== However, there are problems with crypto fundamental analysis (in the traditional sense) Cryptocurrency networks can't really be assessed through the same lens as traditional businesses. If anything, the more decentralized offerings like Bitcoin (BTC) are closer to commodities. But even with the more centralized cryptocurrencies (such as those issued by organizations), traditional FA indicators can't tell us much. So now we are stuck between a rock and a hard place… A quick step would be to identify strong metrics, these should not really take into account things like Twitter or Facebook followers. It’s so easy these days to buy several thousand followers for social media sites. One method could be; the number of active addresses on a blockchain and see that it has been sharply increasing? For example… Are we seeing Company actors transferring money back and forth to themselves with new addresses each time? This is the level of info you can go down to – we are on the Blockchain after all. A little more TECHNICAL If you want to get a bit more technical – you can look at “On-Chain” metrics in depth. On-chain metrics are those that can be observed by looking at data provided by the blockchain itself. By running a node for the desired Crypto and examining the data, this can be time-consuming and expensive. Particularly if you are only considering the investment, and don't want to waste time or resources on this process. A simple way to do this (in some instances) is to use API-based solutions, plug into exchanges, and see third-party tools such as Binance-research's project reports. Look for info such as; 1) Active Addresses 2) Transaction value 3) Fees – this will give an idea of the demand… Other areas as mentioned above You are looking to ‘invest’ in a tech company, which is the longs and shorts of it. So go and read through the whitepaper. Assess use cases, do they make sense to you? Review the team, do they have experience or have they already raised finance enough to keep the project going – you can now use the chain metrics – to see money flow, you could go and look at the companies register, in the UK all companies are set up under “companies house” this will show shareholders, early account info, company directors. Other factors How about competition in the space? What projects are offering similar solutions, are the other companies further along? Does the company you are looking at, have some kind of USP over their competitors? Supply Mechanisms – Liquidity and volume – Market Cap. These are all things to take into consideration. And Finally - Initial distribution and Tokenomics as a whole A lot of projects have created tokens as a solution looking for a problem. Doge on the other hand created a meme for the market, which is turning into a solution. Understanding the use case, cannot be stressed enough. As such, it's important to determine whether the token has real utility. And, will it have decent adoption? Consider how the funds were initially distributed. Was it via an ICO or IEO, or could users earn it by mining? The whitepaper should outline how much is kept for the founders and team, and how much will be available to investors. If it was mined, you could look to evidence of the asset's creator pre-mining (mining on the network before it's announced). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6a1502c2-2227-44f3-acc4-735bd7258715/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091737.png Blog posts - How to assess an altcoin - Make it stand out When doing fundamental analysis into a stock or in this case a coin – you need to appreciate, it is still a company after all. So, your fundamental analysis should include, taking a deep dive into the available information. You might want to review the project use case, the team, and the money the project has raised so far. As you can’t really do technical analysis with limited data available on the charts. Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. At that stage, you can use your insights to inform your trading positions. In other words, have we had a major hype & can a dump be expected? Trading assets as volatile as cryptocurrencies requires some skill. You will need to define a strategy – otherwise, you are Gambling & not trading or investing. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/crypto-news-amp-updates-going-into-the-weekend monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2cac3e56-56a1-4915-9389-f0259b7a4da8/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091237.png Blog posts - Crypto news & updates going into the weekend - Make it stand out We have recently been discussing Crypto more and more & wanted to put together a quick summary of some mentioned in the image. In some instances, there is not much of an analysis to be done on them. So here's a few interesting stories to close out this week. One of the big moves this week was Doge overtaking XRP in terms of market cap. This is actually interesting as there are a couple of coins contending for the space, a little swing in either direction is swapping out the 4th spot potentially. We have Doge with (as of now) $81,114,574,049 and then XRP $73,188,863,309 The Headline read "Dogecoin Price Finally Tops 69 Cents, Flips XRP to Become Top-4 Crypto" Will it stay there? Will it be Ripple taking it back or will we see a rise from some of the one's lower in this list? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a1d0b5bb-1b18-4829-b704-6c8aad18068e/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091442.png Blog posts - Crypto news & updates going into the weekend - Make it stand out Theta sideways https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/396d7e42-3f3d-4a50-b956-538e1395cfac/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091302.png Blog posts - Crypto news & updates going into the weekend - Make it stand out The gains continue the mind-blowing ascent of the meme-based cryptocurrency that is now the fourth-most valuable crypto in the world. DOGE is now up an eye-watering 13,611% year to date and is up 1,017% over a 30-day period, according to data at Messari. Linked to the same point - Elon Musk warns crypto fans to 'invest with caution' as Dogecoin explodes. The Telsa boss could send Dogecoin to the moon on his SNL spot, but he's now telling people to be careful. This week we have also seen ADA (Cardano) break out vs. Bitcoin as ADA price discovery nears $2... A move that an increasing number of large-cap altcoins are seeking to copy, ADA gained impressively during the past few days, going from below $1.30 to the highs as sell walls disappeared. We also had news that Cardano has been Nominated for Blockchain Solution of the Year. Will this have a major impact in the coming weeks? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ What about Stellar? (XLM) Making a Move Higher on VISA, Tala Announcements? It is enjoying a bullish momentum as we head into the weekend, in line with the positive sentiment in the overall crypto market and global financial markets in general. XLM/USD is trading around $0.64. BTT is giving us a slightly down esq sentiment at the moment, are we expecting a rally or will it continue to fall? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0e810b79-4163-439a-ad3c-3bb30a165b59/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091354.png Blog posts - Crypto news & updates going into the weekend - Make it stand out If we look at some winners - how about BNB? Based on the assumption that BNB’s market cap stays at $100 Billion it will currently remain in the 3rd spot behind only ETH and BTC. And on ETH - I feel we are consolidating at the top of an Elliott 3 weekly move. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e61cc2a1-4d47-49b9-932c-7598bf0cfd4b/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091526.png Blog posts - Crypto news & updates going into the weekend - Make it stand out Tron - Class actions against Binance, Tron and others stumble after Bibox court victory. At the beginning of April of last year a flurry of class-action lawsuits took aim at many of the biggest names in crypto. In recent weeks, court developments have cast doubt on the future of those legal efforts. Leading the cases were law firms Roche Freedman and Selendy & Gay. Already well-known in crypto circles for a suit against Tether and BitFinex and another against Craig Wright, on April 3, 2020, the firms filed class-action suits against Binance, Tron, BitMEX, KuCoin, Bibox, Civic, Kaydex, Quantstamp and Status. Overall it's been an interesting week. Seeing BTC more or less sideways. Let's see what the weekend will bring. I think it might be a case of a dip in BTC & a rise in some altcoins. Fun times! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3238b9df-4ea2-4dba-848e-f6c1653fa6b6/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091421.png Blog posts - Crypto news & updates going into the weekend - Make it stand out In the news - Crypto Briefing’s CB10 Index Sees Large Rebalance to ETH, DOGE. Will this be the driver for the consolidation and drop? Sol - going well on the chart, however - Burnt Finance Raises $3M For A Solana-based NFT Marketplace; Famous for Burning Banksy Art Piece. This could be enough exposure to give it another lease of life? https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/this-land-is-mine-says-btc monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/591b82e3-a518-45fb-8296-eb7aa4eed65b/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091049.png Blog posts - This land is mine - says BTC - Make it stand out Why XRP - what about XRP? Well XRP has now over 300 institutional clients and an actual real use case. Although BTC is a store of value, the fees make it hard for any real adoption. Whilst Ripple allows more complex transactions (think wealth manager tasks) in fractions of seconds. This is a strong case for XRP as long as they clear the next SEC/Congress situation. Until then BTC will stay dominant. We will be covering some of this on Monday in a stream on TradinvView with my good friend @Paul_Varcoe who will be hosting the stream. Hopefully, a time will be released later today. Overall bias "LONG" crypto but short term - clear as day we are in a messy (3) - (4) move down on BTC which currently drives everything else. Have a great weekend all! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fd2e7208-ba9d-41c2-a609-fcd65b7a528b/Screenshot+2024-07-24+090854.png Blog posts - This land is mine - says BTC - Make it stand out Now think, if we can see it - who is going to be attracted to this point? Then of course we have the 50k "round number" all retail games of the mind. I have been asked several times recently, about the correlation of other coins. Quite frankly, BTC is only now becoming institutionalized. ETH will come but it's not there 100% yet (neither is bitcoin YET) - But look at what happens with a chart overlay on ETH over BTC. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0e120366-dc86-430d-9ea1-dd4c1b629973/Screenshot+2024-07-24+090941.png Blog posts - This land is mine - says BTC - Make it stand out Then on the strength indicator - we can see a slight blip on ETH but not XRP or BTC. You need to keep in mind that there is a lot of hype in the market so a blip here and there is to be expected. The daily Quadratics show we are still in negative territory on a daily and the rise in the ATR would also suggest a gain in momentum. COT data tonight will paint another clearer picture of next week's bias. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/8cafd908-8d8c-44d9-8971-4e0bde422247/Screenshot+2024-07-24+091008.png Blog posts - This land is mine - says BTC - Make it stand out Then we can look out to the weekly; we are positive in terms of bias (look back at the Elliott post) showing this as a weekly pullback and not an overall down move. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e07a5193-d75c-4366-be37-ffec168b785d/Screenshot+2024-07-24+090801.png Blog posts - This land is mine - says BTC - Make it stand out As you may have seen in several of the last posts, I have been focused on the connections between cross pairs and instruments. My main trading is mostly FX, but with a lot of interest in the crypto space I have been adding some content on this and running commentary on the BTC drops recently. It's amazing to see professional money enter the market, but what most people don't understand is, that it's not "pro money in = price up" there's a lot more to it. So firstly; go and check out the last couple of crypto posts. The second point is - there's something interesting here. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/bit-of-fun-on-btc-for-the-afternoon monthly 0.5 2024-07-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/a3cc3134-7b5f-4753-977a-83695725c54f/Screenshot+2024-07-22+190005.png Blog posts - Bit of fun on BTC for the afternoon - Make it stand out Afternoon fun - doodle. Barts Head on BTC! where next?? https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/aw-20-dollars-i-wanted-a-peanut monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6782e181-33f7-43a4-9e67-4318049e550c/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163354.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Phase 6 As the Pullback comes - we start to get a little anxious, will it go below my entry? What? it can't go there, no way. I am an early adopter, I was in and now it's not continuing up???? What the hellllllllll. I can't sleep, I don't want to eat, I'll just take a triple Espresso with a splash of Red Bull. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1a64222a-27db-4a00-ac84-6f31659723c5/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163110.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out With feedback from Bart and some requests on psychology, I thought I would write a post using the "Simpsons" to explain the phases. So you have a little daft fun, with a topic worth covering from a technical perspective. Phase one Phase one is Hope we hope we are correct in our analysis, we hope that the market goes in our favour, we hope for moon shots and Lambo's. Think of hope and we think of words like aspiration, desire, wish, expectation, ambition & dream. Hope is what we are feeling before a trade is placed. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c94db054-c726-41c2-8cbb-e014db323e3a/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163645.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out The 10th phase Watching Bitcoin move on up, beyond 60, up through 70, into the hundreds. You feel depressed. Trading might not be for you, Bitcoin was a scam. The US government played me. Where next? Work on Monday, How do I tell the wife about the diamond? How do I explain to the Lambo dealer I'd like my deposit back. "Doh, it's a deposit. I've lost that as well!" https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/88176af9-ecf9-498b-b778-e79368d06d96/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163440.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out The 7th Phase Denial - This can't be a trend change? It must be an aggressive pullback. Why is it going so low? I don't believe it, I only have 30X leverage on my trade. I'll hold out, it will hit $1 Million a Bitcoin by the end of the week. We hold and hope! Until the leverage gives a margin call... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/655ee3ca-a47a-4fdb-a1cc-c0ffac37d1ad/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163217.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Phase 3 Belief - at this stage, nothing could go wrong... Well, we hope and maybe pray for. Trading, things never really play out to plan. We see crazy swings in our favour and wild pullbacks. (often enough to give us heart attacks) So we listen to chilled music, we talk to ourselves & we say a silent little prayer that this is the one! My analysis was correct, I am quietly optimistic about this trade, Lambo - here we come, just a little further. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/29425d31-50b3-48fb-8569-ddc7bf9f20dd/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163028.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Market Psychology simplified Carrying on the Simsons theme - In the last couple of months, I have written several educational posts & have been lucky enough to see some being selected as "editor picks" After writing some more serious ones, I wanted to write some other posts to have a laugh. I had some great comments, replies, and requests on the back of the first Bart one. Actually enjoyed the art side of it more than I expected. Back in February, I posted a post about market psychology. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dcda8249-ad99-4de8-9173-1ad1e9041373/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163731.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Bitcoin was just an analogy here - these phases happen over and over again. Nothing new, they will repeat themselves over and over again. To visualise this on a chart, you need to go to the psychology post linked below. To go deeper into this, It's worth reading "Trading in the zone". Hope you liked the images and content! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/85d554cb-91d9-450a-9aa8-a57fe61baae8/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163149.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Phase 2 As a trader, we feel optimistic as the trade goes in our favour, we get excited and dream of the possibilities. What if this goes all the way, what if this account makes me! Bragging rights, money banked - Life doesn't get much better. We can start to relax and unwind and get ourselves into a good place, mentally. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1af229d3-dcb9-45ac-afca-6e0858495472/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163519.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Phase 8 Panic! Pure PANIC Bitcoin falling through my $56,000 floor. I'm 30x Leveraged, please don't drop, please don't. How will I tell the wife I used the kids as collateral? I have to sell out, I can't take another red candle. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d0686d76-5c81-4c53-bb31-b60170b86749/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163255.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Phase Four Thrill!!! What else is there? At this stage, we are winning in life. Now we are picking the colour of the Lambo. Nothing can hurt us now. In trading terms, this is where life often comes to kick us in the ass! But who cares, we are on top of the world!!! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ae7eab28-54ce-48cc-8252-c94d05004d79/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163617.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Phase 9 Why you little.... Yes, Anger sets in. You are out at a healthy loss. It's gone and beat you. Blasted crypto! Must be a scam! I already put a deposit on my pink Lambo. Told the Mrs she could have that diamond ring on Friday. Now what?!>?! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/996041fb-7b38-4142-8ebd-beaec3363286/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163325.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Bitcoin is going to the moon - I bought at $59,000 it's now at $61k I can't lose... The fifth phase Complacency - now back enjoying the beer, we got some great paper gains and we will never see $50k again. Death to Dollar, Rise to Bitcoin and all that! Let's chillout. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1dd87cdc-2a76-4552-9522-f9e0e5ac19dd/Screenshot+2024-07-22+163549.png Blog posts - "Aw, 20 Dollars? I Wanted A Peanut!" - Make it stand out Maybe the little sprite is toying with me! https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/simplified-elliott-it-can-be-confusing monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fefc9e7d-66d3-4c5c-9717-c32d1d1280c9/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152756.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/52555741-5793-409e-8517-7a653b5fa566/Screenshot+2024-07-22+153023.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out - this is just a simple example - more can be found on elliottwave-forecast...elliott-wave-theory/ Some other nuggets https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ba736ebf-8849-408d-8330-2ce7703a824c/Screenshot+2024-07-22+153131.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/80e800e2-c2a3-47de-bfa8-ad954aaa1f1b/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152907.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/283e35b8-bb67-4785-95d1-2d413c6023be/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152813.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/599c81ce-4711-4db0-8806-cd2d956a2ca4/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152925.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f87540bb-05eb-405b-a9a4-6858370b6a60/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152943.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f8e42d0f-7171-4372-80db-e1dd3ab1f6e0/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152655.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/856a3359-ba1c-49f7-b837-1a2d486bc932/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152852.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/36467e76-df71-4915-9253-bc6f3f6037e0/Screenshot+2024-07-22+153058.png Blog posts - Simplified Elliott: It can be confusing - Make it stand out A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation. Wave 3 is an extension of 161.8% of the first wave in the Elliott wave count. This means that the third wave forms right after the completion of the second wave. To identify the 3rd wave, the second wave has to be complete and fall within the general rules of Elliott waves. NEW VS OLD The biggest change in today’s market compared to the one in 1930s is in the definition of a trend and counter-trend move. We have four major classes of market: Stock market, forex, commodities, and bonds. The Elliott Wave Theory was originally derived from the observation of the stock market (i.e. Dow Theory), but certain markets such as forex exhibit more of a ranging market. In today’s market, 5 waves move still happen in the market, but our years of observation suggest that 3 waves move happens more frequently in the market than a 5 waves move. In addition, the market can keep moving in a corrective structure in the same direction. In other words, the market can trend in a corrective structure; it keeps moving in the sequence of 3 waves, getting a pullback, then continues in the same direction again in a 3 waves corrective move. Thus, we believe in today’s market, trends do not have to be in 5 waves and trends can unfold in 3 waves. It’s therefore important not to force everything in 5 waves when trying to find the trend and label the chart. As I said on the front cover - this is not for experts, it's an intro to Elliott Theory. If there are Elliott traders reading, please contribute to the post. Add anything you find useful. The other post mentioned above was how the mindset plays into these waves and the overall moves. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/the-lazy-mans-guide-to-elliott-wave monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/467ade43-a65f-4db9-a912-f8c710ffb241/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152217.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3. Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/c880e721-1cc2-42c9-9f54-fcb2d8272cae/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152404.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ecfdd565-e106-4570-9051-0f7e44e78b44/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152054.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f036e9cf-b7aa-4200-b626-e353774cd22a/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152340.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/48c14871-104d-4711-8e37-9edfbcb9070d/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152022.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Elliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks. To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool. The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it. Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker. Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d1d4f757-46a6-4788-97f3-a5d2273be4da/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152249.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup... https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0a50ea1f-da43-43f1-85cd-662a960fa439/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152130.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f972d567-71ea-46da-86d2-1a67de9e523e/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152314.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0dd318fa-e3b6-415e-aaed-b550180c1651/Screenshot+2024-07-22+152151.png Blog posts - The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/a-quick-intro-to-moving-averages-beginners monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/14955ce7-7d5d-4ef5-9f5e-23b4e2c354c9/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151847.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out Another simple strategy - Investopedia This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA, because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps. Plot three exponential moving averages—a five-period EMA, a 20-period EMA, and 50-period EMA—on a 15-minute chart. Buy when the five-period EMA crosses from below to above the 20-period EMA, and the price, five, and 20-period EMAs are above the 50 EMA. For a sell trade, sell when the five-period EMA crosses from above to below the 20-period EMA, and both EMAs and the price are below the 50-period EMA. Place the initial stop-loss order below the 20-period EMA (for a buy trade), or alternatively about 10 pips from the entry price. An optional step is to move the stop-loss to break even when the trade is 10 pips profitable. Consider placing a profit target of 20 pips, or alternatively exit when the five-period falls below the 20-period if long, or when the five moves above the 20 when short. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ad467262-2817-4381-949f-d83c7e8b561a/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151732.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out Then you have an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/1f7d8321-a10f-407f-bac7-70b96fa47649/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151600.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/51040b06-d4d6-4623-b420-f977c80c1b84/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151625.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/03f25161-3c97-4ba3-85a9-8b3d32273a05/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151758.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average. EMAs differ from simple moving averages in that a given day's EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA. Highlighting the difference between an MA & an SMA - The Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is similar to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), in that it aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. The indicator takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/63b40c77-068b-4941-a3f7-4f5c8b5346eb/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151819.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out Then how it can be used and applied, *** There are many strategies out there, the most basic starts with above or below a level (above = buy, below = sell) And then it steps into two moving averages crossing for example. Also as I mentioned above - other indicators use a form of moving average to calculate their plot. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/343f0fe2-dae5-4586-b8ca-c2144fe3633b/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151517.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/08527b39-1e5b-4632-a961-867d51556fed/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151427.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out I have recently had some questions on some of the basics such as moving averages. First of all, there is some great free content out there via sites such as Babypips I wanted to share some simple info to at least explain what a moving average is. Where it is used and what are the types of. Moving average is a simple, technical analysis tool. Moving averages are usually calculated to identify the trend direction of a stock or to determine its support and resistance levels. It is a trend-following—or lagging—indicator because it is based on past prices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/14e9b768-305f-45a6-98e2-537d33e03977/Screenshot+2024-07-22+151701.png Blog posts - A Quick intro to Moving Averages (Beginners) - Make it stand out A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. Most moving averages are based on closing prices; for example, a 5-day simple moving average is the five-day sum of closing prices divided by five. As its name implies, a moving average is an average that moves. Old data is dropped as new data becomes available, causing the average to move along the time scale. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/trading-books monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9103c6f9-fc27-486b-8b57-b0a157b3cfb4/Screenshot+2024-07-22+145502.png Blog posts - trading books - Make it stand out The next wave - moving away from trading manuals per se: https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/75d30d53-66f9-430a-b6dd-0c2f4003a0d0/Screenshot+2024-07-22+145616.png Blog posts - trading books - Make it stand out And lastly some books worth mentioning but were just off the top 20 spot. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/18d52733-014e-4b0b-a869-b6524b27a05b/Screenshot+2024-07-22+145331.png Blog posts - trading books - Make it stand out As a trading coach & mentor, I often get asked about where to go and find resources. Anything from books to specific strategies. So I thought it would be interesting to not only share with the community some books I have liked over the years. But to ask for your favorite books, any suggestions - any thoughts on the books listed? Even if they're slightly outside of the conventional trading manual concepts - there are some great Wall Street stories, banking or business esq books. Be great to get some conversations going! Here's the second wave. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9ec73648-78a5-43de-a771-5bc506218f73/Screenshot+2024-07-22+145642.png Blog posts - trading books - Make it stand out Authors: 1.Mark Douglas 2.Max Gunther 3.Rubén Villahermosa 4.Benjamin Graham 5.Myles Wilson Walker 6. RN Elliott 7.H. M. Gartley 8.Mark Douglas 9.Adam Smith 10.Pierluigi Paganini 11.Henry Hazlitt 12.James Hughes 13.Nassim Taleb 14.Michael Lewis 15.Bryan Burrough 16.Jordan Belfort 17.Kevin Roose 18.Bob Burg 19.Nassim Taleb 20.Peter Elkind https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/140d3d59-dc95-4d3c-8b37-a5520d61cf8e/Screenshot+2024-07-22+145542.png Blog posts - trading books - Make it stand out Another list: https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/buying-the-dips-made-simple monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/280258ad-121f-44da-a7ff-d8bbfd711431/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144618.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out In Summary - you need a belief and a reason that you assume the stock is going higher. It does not matter if it's SPX, Bitcoin or Apple. Secondary you need a directional bias confirmation such as a 200 EMA. I would say to include an envelope (channel) of some description, Something to help you confirm the trend (Elliott) for example. And then a trigger, this could be a candlestick formation, an RSI or MACD overbought/sold signal. Something that suits you and your style. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5fcf7e01-95e5-4383-b4d8-b51835e972d6/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144431.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Just to show an example I have added EMA, Bollinger, Hand drawn regression and an imbalance level. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/870b8fa0-b241-4221-88d5-d103534f2bed/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144547.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out A simple explanation of Elliott wave from another previous post (click for post) - https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/55ee99b3-288d-4d2d-ab36-bb337f549b8a/Screenshot+2024-07-22+143932.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0ad169bb-3a96-421e-98d1-d8a3dda57b2a/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144225.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/50d25512-1a54-44f2-bf6f-2300c88b2fb9/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144317.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/bbcedb91-9bec-4397-8c48-5cb4a36b3009/Screenshot+2024-07-22+143852.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5537e75c-515b-4d7b-89c9-c5bfa9630194/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144359.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7a3be1ef-d1f1-446a-80a8-0e9108213edc/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144656.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out I hope this helps. Be great to get other ideas, comments or strategies from others below! Have a great weekend! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/2cf6926b-e1a8-49ae-a992-b5b73e532487/Screenshot+2024-07-22+143832.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f644cbcd-1682-494e-9e7f-77f71d7a94c2/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144148.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/15987d84-77e3-49a7-ab43-897519242f8e/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144041.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/930a0765-c1bc-4855-ae3a-d0320f1447df/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144002.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0428ef88-09f6-47fa-9bc3-29b58c690cec/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144114.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/02233315-d8b9-47c6-8db5-0e308eab1e59/Screenshot+2024-07-22+144507.png Blog posts - BUYING THE DIPS Made Simple - Make it stand out Elliott Wave Theory Another awesome tool for finding directional bias - If combined with other techniques, indicators and tools, this can be mighty powerful as a whole. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/trading-can-be-lonely-what-do-you-think-1 monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/df8303a3-c815-4134-ab18-5de510a7ee66/Screenshot+2024-07-22+141846.png Blog posts - Trading can be lonely... What do you think...??? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/market-moves-and-its-psychology monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/7f2cd22f-67cb-4600-abcb-dd856b61c6df/Screenshot+2024-07-22+141534.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/05cf0c68-0f86-4388-91b7-737dd76a41ed/Screenshot+2024-07-22+141329.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/e1ba64ea-5a4c-4f5b-8159-183773a687e2/Screenshot+2024-07-22+141222.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/0a4bfcfe-edfd-44b5-930f-3884c3e280d7/Screenshot+2024-07-22+141452.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/27b3f22c-392a-4581-a6e4-05f69b4e2a53/Screenshot+2024-07-20+at+09.48.30.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out This image above shows the emotions as per the Wall Street cheat sheet. (Go google) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/11f56b93-6b74-49c3-868a-54f5c2c80c19/Screenshot+2024-07-22+141414.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/8ce002c8-1e34-44f7-8600-f68b62408e45/Screenshot+2024-07-20+at+09.43.24.png Blog posts - Market moves and market Psychology - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/bitcoin-gann-fan-tutorial-basics monthly 0.5 2024-07-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/4bbf9369-09a8-4daf-b022-b6c3c014bf7f/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131308.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/3d7aa290-b27b-4d02-bbf2-b1b0a4a9b332/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131146.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/10804fa4-7f6c-40ac-8c83-635b9e49dcf4/Screenshot+2024-07-22+130728.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/305070da-e755-49b1-a932-75956e46f439/Screenshot+2024-07-22+130754.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/77632a79-91c2-4227-9f58-0881c1973637/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131354.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ec53cfa1-02a3-438c-9356-8764d3836b97/Screenshot+2024-07-20+at+09.24.21.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/f5195dfe-84d6-4bc2-8aa2-28aece79a239/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131115.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/d4b95ff9-795f-4cab-b47d-41a9c1582ee0/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131217.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/297f4c1b-6fec-445f-8135-4dbce2950366/Screenshot+2024-07-22+130553.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/107e546d-667b-4395-be00-d2a1262ba613/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131244.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/9887791d-6217-4e47-87e2-858d99bfe6f2/Screenshot+2024-07-22+130629.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/6e62a4b3-92aa-4e43-bd80-d19b556eda36/Screenshot+2024-07-22+131330.png Blog posts - Bitcoin (Gann Fan) Tutorial Basics - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/category/Recipe monthly 0.5 https://www.mayfair-method.com/blogposts/category/Wellness monthly 0.5 https://www.mayfair-method.com/home daily 1.0 2024-08-27 https://www.mayfair-method.com/about daily 0.75 2024-08-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/5c2fe0f8-1149-47eb-9865-5f08f79f9b4b/Screenshot+2024-07-20+at+18.38.37.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/42b59c4b-31ec-44c8-b274-592c9d3fb796/transparent+Lewis.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/73379a53-3431-4e5d-ba05-35e63143a02a/transparent+bg.png https://www.mayfair-method.com/services daily 0.75 2024-08-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/914855a4-2db7-401e-8d33-9bde8ef55120/Screenshot+2024-08-23+133926.png https://www.mayfair-method.com/contact daily 0.75 2024-08-25 https://www.mayfair-method.com/work-with-me daily 0.75 2024-08-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/645bd71cbd199323c274e2fa/643d517f-3f36-4717-8921-8b0142a1d5fc/image-asset.jpeg https://www.mayfair-method.com/workshop daily 0.75 2024-08-20 https://www.mayfair-method.com/discord-view daily 0.75 2024-08-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/fcf8e275-ddc5-42db-8593-24c869ec940e/web+5.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/075adf38-cad0-4ece-af8c-849790548c9c/web+3.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/dfb52e97-bc72-48d4-9483-caa47e5f5b02/web+2.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/ef5c2f30-cb88-400f-b18f-92c769a776df/web+4.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/b25367c4-0b2a-4f3b-ab3c-99c9759891f6/web+1.png https://www.mayfair-method.com/books daily 0.75 2024-08-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/76e08115-e6c8-4cde-9e7e-c645cbf64c41/Screenshot+2024-08-22+153815.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/93aba1fa-9281-4696-a015-5a99389a83e3/Screenshot+2024-08-22+152331.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/669a8dc80583c10da07bd261/62e1cb2c-094a-4c77-b1f8-06a2cc716f59/Screenshot+2024-08-22+153441.png https://www.mayfair-method.com/fulfilment-policy daily 0.75 2024-08-27 https://www.mayfair-method.com/site-disclaimer daily 0.75 2024-08-27 https://www.mayfair-method.com/coaching-appointment daily 0.75 2025-05-13 https://www.mayfair-method.com/seasonal-recipes daily 0.75 2025-05-13 https://www.mayfair-method.com/seasonal-recipes/autumn-47njj monthly 0.5 2023-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/645bd71cbd199323c274e2fa/1683740464065-LDI8PB87ST0W4K65F0UW/image-asset.jpeg https://www.mayfair-method.com/seasonal-recipes/winter-nxn2z monthly 0.5 2023-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/645bd71cbd199323c274e2fa/1683740464051-4S0EGEL5C53VQ0VCBAUJ/Stocksy_comp_2553271.jpg https://www.mayfair-method.com/seasonal-recipes/summer-m25cy monthly 0.5 2023-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/645bd71cbd199323c274e2fa/1683740464036-13127HMM78B5KDUHSBWI/image-asset.jpeg https://www.mayfair-method.com/seasonal-recipes/spring-m7p77 monthly 0.5 2023-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/645bd71cbd199323c274e2fa/1683740464079-JAS53VAF91KF6YDQOV86/image-asset.jpeg